Week 1 CFB Premium Record: 4-1, +5.35u
*CFB(2u): Cal +11.5(+100) @ TCU–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
This line is an overreaction to Cal’s loss to Nevada last week and also grossly overvalues this TCU team. Nevada is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country this year, and they feature a QB in Carson Strong who is one of the top prospects for the upcoming NFL Draft. Even so, Cal held Nevada to under 400 yards offensively, including just 61 yards on the ground. TCU is much better on the ground than they are through the air; while QB Max Duggan is mobile, he completed just 57.6% of his passes last year and can’t be trusted to make the throws needed to cover this number. While TCU’s defense is well coached, I expect a bounce back performance from the Cal offense this week. QB Chase Garbers is in his 4th year as Cal’s starter, and this environment will be no sweat for the veteran. The Golden Bears are a team that I expect to play a lot of close games this season; in other words, they are not going to excel as a favorite, but they are more than capable of covering this big of a number as underdogs. This is my best bet for Week 2, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cal has a chance of winning this game late.
*CFB(1.5u): Rutgers ML(-130) @ Syracuse–Saturday 1 PM CT
I cashed a 2u play on Rutgers last weekend as they absolutely demolished Temple 61-14. I identified the Scarlet Knights as a team that will have some value early in the season, and it appears the betting market has still not caught up to Rutgers’ true value, even after beating the closing line by 33 points last week. Syracuse is one of the worst(if not the worst) Power 5 teams this season, and while they get this game at home, I don’t see the Carrier Dome environment providing them much of an advantage. Syracuse QB Tommy DeVito might have experience, but his time at Syracuse has been a total dud. He lacks the mobility to excel against physical defenses; sacks have been an issue in the past, and I think that will continue on Saturday against an experienced and productive Rutgers front 7. What’s funny about Rutgers is that they weren’t even very productive offensively last week, yet they still managed to eclipse the 60 point barrier. Syracuse ranked 111th in yards allowed/game last season, so I would expect a more efficient performance from QB Noah Vedral through the air. Rutgers is a complete team that can score points in an abundance of ways, and I think they’ll totally outmatch the Orange on Saturday. I would advocate taking them on the ML to avoid any funny business on the -2 spread, but it shouldn’t end up mattering either way.
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa/Iowa State UNDER 46(-110)–Sat 3:30 PM CT
While I’m not saying to always look towards an Under in a rivalry game setting, it tends to work out more times than not. For reference, the Under has hit 13-2 in these teams’ last 15 meetings; with the way these teams match up this year, I expect that the Under trend to continue. Iowa managed to dominate Indiana last week, but the 34-6 final is a bit misleading if you don’t add some context. Iowa scored 20 points off of turnovers and managed just 303 yards of total offense. Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras is an inefficient passer(56% completion in his career), and under the leadership of traditionalist Kirk Ferentz, this team runs their offense at a slow pace. Iowa State’s defense is effective in virtually every area, but led by LB Mike Rose, they specialize at the second level. That gives them a leg up to help stop an effective running attack and will likely put the game in the arm of Pedras. While I expect Iowa’s offense to struggle, you can’t discount how good their defense looked last week. Indiana was an effective offense in 2020, so not allowing a TD in the season opener is a major accomplishment. The public loves Iowa State’s offense, but I believe they are more ineffective than publicly perceived. Of course, RB Breece Hall is a dynamic back(I don’t deny that), but I’m not as high on Brock Purdy and the Cyclones passing attack as most. One good piece of news for ISU is they’ll welcome back TE Charlie Kolar from injury, who in my opinion is their catalyst and most important weapon. Even so, this Cyclones team is built more to sustain drives than they are to light up the scoreboard, and they’ll have no free yards against what could be an elite Iowa defense. I think this is a game where the first team to 20 wins; I think Iowa State will win by a FG and this game will stay under the total.
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky +7 @ Army–Sat 10:30 AM CT
This line stood out to me like a sore thumb when I initially glanced at this Week 2 card. Western Kentucky added HBU transfer Bailey Zappe at QB as well as his top receiver from HBU(Jerreth Sterns), and suddenly the Hilltoppers have a real chance to put up record numbers offensively this season. Following a career at HBU that saw Zappe throw 78 TD’s, the senior shined in his first game at WKU last week, throwing for 424 yards and 7 TD’s. While Army will attempt to slow this game down through the use of their triple option scheme, I just don’t think they’re prepared for what’s coming with WKU’s prolific passing attack. Western Kentucky has a ton of new faces of defenses, and while they were effective last season, those question marks keep this at a 1u play. But, I’m more than willing to take a shot with a guy who’s done nothing but light up the scoreboard as a college QB, especially if you’re going to give me 7 points to work with.
*Week 2 MoneyLine Sprinkles(0.6u each)
*Western Kentucky ML(+215) @ Army
*Cal ML(+340) @ TCU
*Washington ML(+215) @ Michigan
These first two sprinkles are self-explanatory given that I took the points with each of those teams. As for this Washington pick, I think the market has overreacted to their Week 1 loss, which has driven this line up in Michigan’s favor. While that loss was inexcusable, I have a lot of confidence in Washington’s defense and think they will be able to hold a somewhat stagnant Michigan offense at bay. The Huskies lost last week because of 3 Dylan Morris turnovers, and he will certainly need to clean that up. I still think Washington is the better team, and they are worth a shot for me at greater than 2:1 odds.
