When betting the tight NFL market, there’s nothing you can do to help yourself more than to make your own power rankings. It’s not too late! Numbers, however subjective, are a great starting point for comparison to what oddsmakers put out there and how the market reacts. My most successful NFL betting seasons are in large part to the fact that I sit down every week and build an Excel sheet (yes it’s rudimentary- but go with what you know). Before I get into my NFL power rankings, in case anyone wants to know, this is my basic process…
I start my season by using the consensus NFL future win totals. VegasInsider.com had a nice list I used this year, (2021 NFL Win Totals Odds | Team Over Under Wins Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)). From there, a basic approach would be to add points all the way down the list of projected wins. For example, KC was projected 12.5 wins and HOU 4 wins, therefore HOU would have an -8.5 spread against HOU on a neutral field. If KC were at home, they would be an 11.5 favorite. Personally, I adjust those numbers to what I think the lines should be but the lines that are up are great for comparison as well.
The most influential part of my handicap is the injury report, (NFL Injury Report – Football Player Injuries – CBSSports.com). How you weigh these position players makes a difference. Outside of the QB, injuries to the OL and DL are the most significant. That’s where I think I’m different from the general NFL market. By position I tend to grade as follows QB/OL=1, DL/ LB=0.75, WR/DB=0.25, with exceptions, of course, based on talent.
After the injury report, I like to look at team statistics and what I use the most is Pro Football Reference, (2021 NFL Standings & Team Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com). I’ll use these notes for a bigger picture of what’s going on with a team and to see how a team matches up with an opponent. Then, I’ll consider the opening lines and narratives around the teams.
That being said, I am writing this later than I would like. These are my numbers prior to the Thursday game. This chart is hard to read as the conversion from Excel is not great but, if I would have gone with my Week 2 numbers on the Thursday game I would have done well last night. I had NYG -6 behind the best team and WAS -6.5. Factor in the 3 points for homefield and I had WAS -2.5 instead of the WAS -3.5 closing number. Making the right plays are another conversation.
I wanted to put these out earlier in the week but, life… I will adjust these numbers Saturday once finalized injury reports are out. Again, Excel conversion looks like shit but a look into how I build my rankings… and what I have. Use them to fade or follow but wanted to put something out there because I like to look at power rankings myself. If any interest in my power rankings throughout the year let me know on Twitter @kooziekris or @theoddsbreakers.
| Week 1 Rank | Team | Offseason Point Adjustment Opinion | News/ Noteables/ Narratives | Total Adjustment | Adjusted points | Week 2 Rank | Team | Week 2 Points |
| 1 | KC | -0.5 | 33 pts v decent DEF. 27th Rush YPA. 21st Team DEF | 0 | -0.5 | 1 | TB | 0 |
| 2 | TB | 0 | LB Q. 4 Tos. 30th Rush yds. 31st Pass DEF | 0 | 0 | 2 | KC | -0.5 |
| 3 | BUF | -0.5 | 4 Fmb. 19th Pass yds, 15th Rush yds v good DEF. | 0 | -0.5 | 3 | LAR | -0.5 |
| 4 | BAL | -1.5 | LBs, WRs, RBs, CBs Out. (-3). 22nd Pass yds OFF. 4 Fmb. 32nd pass DEF | -3 | -4.5 | 4 | BUF | -0.5 |
| 5 | LAR | -0.5 | 2 DL Q. 3rd YPP. 24th Rush yds | 0 | -0.5 | 5 | CLE | -1 |
| 6 | SF | -0.5 | RB, CB out(-0.5). CB, DT, 2 DE Q (-1). 10th pass/ 11th rush yds. | -1 | -1.5 | 6 | SF | -1.5 |
| 7 | CLE | -1 | 3 OL Q.(-3) WR out. 2nd Off yds. 7th Rush, 27th Pass v KC | -1 | -1 | 7 | SEA | -2 |
| 8 | GB | -1.5 | OT out (WK7). 32nd Rush yds/ 31st YPA.31st Team DEF, 3rd Pass/ 30th rush | -0.5 | -2 | 8 | GB | -2 |
| 9 | SEA | -1.5 | OG out(WK15)(-0.5). 4th YPP. 7th Team DEF | -0.5 | -2 | 9 | LAC | -2 |
| 10 | NE | -3.5 | OT Q (-0.5) CB out (WK7). 4 Fmb. 24th Off. 6th Pass, 9th Rush DEF | 0 | -3.5 | 10 | NOR | -2.5 |
| 11 | LAC | -2 | OT Q (-1). S, DB Q (-1). 9th Total yds OFF. 8th Total DEF | 0 | -2 | 11 | ARI | -3 |
| 12 | MIA | -3.5 | 28th Off yds. 18th Pass, 20th rush DEF. | 0 | -3.5 | 12 | MIA | -3.5 |
| 13 | NOR | -2.5 | C Do (-1), CB Do(-0.5) LB Q (-0.5), K out 2nd Rush Off. #1 DEF yds. COVID? | 0 | -2.5 | 13 | NE | -3.5 |
| 14 | TEN | -3.5 | WR, LB Q(-1). 32nd YPP, 31st total yds. 30th Team DEF | -0.5 | -4 | 14 | PIT | -3.5 |
| 15 | IND | -3 | OG, 2 OT, LB Q (-1.5). 26th YPP.17th Rush, 21st Pass OFF. 13th Pass, 25th Rush DEF. | -0.5 | -3.5 | 15 | IND | -3.5 |
| 16 | DAL | -4 | 2 DE/ OT/ WR out (-1.5), S Q (-0.5) 3rd Off yds. DEF 4 fTOs. 3rd Rush/ 30th Pass DEF | -1.5 | -5.5 | 16 | DEN | -3.5 |
| 17 | MIN | -4 | LB Q (-0.5). 29th Rush YPA. Most penalty yds. 10th pass, 26th rush DEF | 0 | -4 | 17 | TEN | -4 |
| 18 | PIT | -3.5 | OT out(WK4). LB Q (-0.25). 29th Off. Yds. 9th Team DEF, DEF looks great | 0 | -3.5 | 18 | MIN | -4 |
| 19 | ARI | -3.5 | OT Q (ribs)(-0.5). 10th Rush yds. 3rd Team DEF, 4th Pass, 13th Rush | 0.5 | -3 | 19 | CAR | -4.5 |
| 20 | WAS | -6 | QB out(-0. 5). 3 Fmb. 32nd Pass yds. 28th Pass DEF | -0.5 | -6.5 | 20 | BAL | -4.5 |
| 21 | DEN | -4 | DE, LB Q. CB(WK5), WR (WK6)out (-0.5). 10th Total OFF yds. 4th Team DEF | 0.5 | -3.5 | 21 | LVR | -4.75 |
| 22 | CHI | -5.5 | OL,DT,LB Q (-1). 23rd Total yds OFF. 8th rush, 24th Pass DEF | -0.5 | -6 | 22 | DAL | -5.5 |
| 23 | CAR | -4.5 | 13th YPP. 2nd rush DEF, 9th Pass DEF | 0 | -4.5 | 23 | PHI | -6 |
| 24 | ATL | -6 | 31st Off. Most DEF penalties. 31st Rush DEF. All around bad. | -1 | -7 | 24 | NYG | -6 |
| 25 | LVR | -4.5 | OG, DT out (-0.75). 2 LB, OG, RB Q. (-0.5) 1st Off.yds. 18th Team DEF. Looked good. | -0.25 | -4.75 | 25 | CHI | -6 |
| 26 | NYG | -6 | TE, OG out(-0.5). 30th Off. 16th Pass, 29th Rush DEF. TOs cost them | 0 | -6 | 26 | CIN | -6.5 |
| 27 | JAX | -7.5 | CB Q. 15th Off yds/ YPP. 3 Tos. 21st Pass, 28th Rush yds DEF, 29th Team DEF | -0.5 | -8 | 27 | WAS | -6.5 |
| 28 | CIN | -6.5 | 7th Rush yds. 21st Total OFF yds. DEF most penalty yds. 6th rush DEF, 29th pass | 0 | -6.5 | 28 | NYJ | -6.5 |
| 29 | PHI | -6.5 | RB, OG, WR, TE Q (-1.25). 3rd Rush OFF. 2nd Team DEF | 0.5 | -6 | 29 | ATL | -7 |
| 30 | NYJ | -7 | 31st Rush yds, 30th Total OFF. 12th Team DEF. Could’ve won | 0.5 | -6.5 | 30 | HOU | -7.5 |
| 31 | DET | -7.5 | CB out(season)(-0.5). 7th Total OFF (garbage time). 32nd Team DEF | -0.5 | -8 | 31 | DET | -8 |
| 32 | HOU | -7.5 | 2 DB, LB, WR Q. K out (WK4). 4th Off yds.2nd 3DConv. 26th Pass, 11th rush DEF | 0 | -7.5 | 32 | JAX | -8 |
Adding copy of RH half of chart because it gets cut off on phone view.
| Total Adjustment | Adjusted points | Week 2 Rank | Team | Week 2 Points |
| 0 | -0.5 | 1 | TB | 0 |
| 0 | 0 | 2 | KC | -0.5 |
| 0 | -0.5 | 3 | LAR | -0.5 |
| -3 | -4.5 | 4 | BUF | -0.5 |
| 0 | -0.5 | 5 | CLE | -1 |
| -1 | -1.5 | 6 | SF | -1.5 |
| -1 | -1 | 7 | SEA | -2 |
| -0.5 | -2 | 8 | GB | -2 |
| -0.5 | -2 | 9 | LAC | -2 |
| 0 | -3.5 | 10 | NOR | -2.5 |
| 0 | -2 | 11 | ARI | -3 |
| 0 | -3.5 | 12 | MIA | -3.5 |
| 0 | -2.5 | 13 | NE | -3.5 |
| -0.5 | -4 | 14 | PIT | -3.5 |
| -0.5 | -3.5 | 15 | IND | -3.5 |
| -1.5 | -5.5 | 16 | DEN | -3.5 |
| 0 | -4 | 17 | TEN | -4 |
| 0 | -3.5 | 18 | MIN | -4 |
| 0.5 | -3 | 19 | CAR | -4.5 |
| -0.5 | -6.5 | 20 | BAL | -4.5 |
| 0.5 | -3.5 | 21 | LVR | -4.75 |
| -0.5 | -6 | 22 | DAL | -5.5 |
| 0 | -4.5 | 23 | PHI | -6 |
| -1 | -7 | 24 | NYG | -6 |
| -0.25 | -4.75 | 25 | CHI | -6 |
| 0 | -6 | 26 | CIN | -6.5 |
| -0.5 | -8 | 27 | WAS | -6.5 |
| 0 | -6.5 | 28 | NYJ | -6.5 |
| 0.5 | -6 | 29 | ATL | -7 |
| 0.5 | -6.5 | 30 | HOU | -7.5 |
| -0.5 | -8 | 31 | DET | -8 |
| 0 | -7.5 | 32 | JAX | -8 |
