Premium Record: 13-5, +15.3u
2021 CFB: 16-11-1, +10.85u
*CFB(1.5u): Virginia Tech/West Virginia UNDER 50.5–Sat. 11 AM CT
West Virginia built a reputation for their high-flying offenses under Dana Holgerson, but that trend simply hasn’t continued under 3rd year HC Neal Brown. QB Jarrett Doege has a ton of experience at the college level, but his inability to hit on deep balls has really held back the Mountaineer offense. Even worse, their main RB Leddie Brown has averaged just 3.3 YPC to start the season. Essentially, WVU only excels in the short passing game before often having to punt. Virginia Tech has allowed just 24 points to start this season, including 10 to a potent North Carolina offense in Week 1; the Hokies’ ability to win in the trenches should be evident on Saturday. Unlike Dana Holgerson, though, Brown has gotten a solid output from his defense during his tenure in Morgantown. I don’t think too highly of the Virginia Tech offense; because they are so inexperienced at the WR position, they don’t fully trust QB Braxton Burmeister in the throw game yet, making them fairly one dimensional. Neither of their main RB’s is particularly explosive, and I like what I’ve seen from WVU’s defense in the Brown era. I expect this to be an ugly game, and I won’t even bother trying to pick a winner. Rather, I think the value is on the Under.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma -22(-115) vs Nebraska–Saturday 11 AM CT
Many people are concerned with the Sooners after they squeaked out a mere 5 point win in Week 1 against Tulane. Some digging would tell you that they led that game 37-14 at the Half before completely falling apart in the second half. That’s no new problem in Norman, either; the Sooners are a notorious front-runner. That being said, they should be glad that scare happened in Week 1, and I think that wake-up call was all they needed to make sure that doesn’t happen again. I have absolutely zero doubt the Sooners will come out hot offensively, and with the reminder of the Tulane game fresh in their minds, I don’t think they’ll let up in the second half, either. Nebraska is totally outmatched in virtually every matchup I look at(including coaching), but the one catalyst they have is the feet of QB Adrian Martinez. The problem is: they are unwilling to commit to the QB run as their main offensive threat. Martinez has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of the first 3 weeks, yet the offense still hasn’t lit up the scoreboard. Martinez can’t be trusted going toe-to-toe with Spencer Rattler, and Scott Frost’s arrogance about what he’d like his offense to look like is going to backfire in a big way. There is a ton of motivation for Oklahoma to win this game in a blowout, and I think they’ll do just that.
*CFB(1.5u): Auburn/Penn State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
This primetime game will feature over 100,000 rowdy Penn State fans looking to rattle Bo Nix and the Auburn Tigers. In the past, Nix has struggled miserably on the road, and this SEC-like environment and Penn State defense figures to continue that trend. While Auburn has looked good to start the season, they’ve played two weak opponents(Akron and Alabama State). This is a huge step in class, and nothing makes me believe they’ll be up for it. However, I do think their defense can keep them in this game. Bryan Harsin inherited a very good situation defensively, and Auburn’s specialization at the LB and CB position figures to match up well with this Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions got a huge win in Week 1 at Wisconsin, but that had little to do with Sean Clifford and their offense. Clifford did make clutch throws on third down, but this Auburn defense is no slouch. Because the throw game doesn’t come easy to either of these two teams, I think both defenses have the edge. I expect a lot of usage for each of these teams’ RB units, which could lead to these teams trading a lot of punts. In any case, this total is too high. I’m rolling with the Under.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana Tech +12.5 vs SMU–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
*ML Sprinkle(0.5u): Louisiana Tech ML(+380) vs SMU
I wonder what this line would look like had Louisiana Tech not blown a 20 point lead against Mississippi State in Week 1. They led that game 34-14 in the 4th quarter before bottling up and losing by 1. While that’s an indictment on HC Skip Holtz, it does tell me something that they were even in that game to begin with. QB Austin Kendall has played much stiffer competition than this throughout his career and can be relied upon as this heavy of a ‘dog. However, I feel confident in this pick because I think SMU is heavily overvalued at this point in the season. They’ve played two weak-links through 2 games, and although they’ve looked good on both sides of the ball, Sonny Dykes-led teams rarely cover this big of spreads because he doesn’t put a great emphasis on defense. Not only that, but this is a potential look-ahead spot with SMU gearing up to play their hated rival TCU next week. This line is inflated because SMU did what they were supposed to do against inferior competition; I like LaTech to cover, and I think there’s a very real chance they win this game.
