Through 3 weeks of the College Football season, I sit at 16-11-1, +10.85u. In 2.5 weeks of giving out premium plays, those have gone 13-5 and netted my members +15.3u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Minnesota/Colorado UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat. Noon PM CT
Minnesota might’ve lost star RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season, but it doesn’t appear as if PJ Fleck has changed his strategy at all. Last week, the Gophers ran Trey Potts 34(!) times and had QB Tanner Morgan attempt just 17 passes. While I would expect Morgan to have a bigger role in this matchup, it’s clear that the Gophers’ staff don’t have much trust in their WR room and would rather keep things on the ground. Colorado’s defense showed out in a big way last week, limiting Texas A&M to just 10 points. I don’t know whether that can be expected ween in and week out, but I will say that HC Karl Dorrell is a defensive-minded HC; considering the Gophers’ vanilla brand of offense, I expect the Buffs defense to hold strong. For as good as Colorado’s defense played, they left a ton to be desired offensively against the Aggies last week. QB Brendon Lewis has a ton of talent, but he threw for just 89 yards on 25 attempts last week. Much like Minnesota, the Buffs seem content pounding the ground game and don’t seem to want to stretch the field with the pass. I think we will see a truly ugly game in Boulder where the first team to 20 wins. Under is the right play.
*CFB(1u): Georgia Tech/Clemson OVER 52(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I’ve been on a lot of Unders this season, much to the dismay of the “Life’s too short to bet the Under” crowd. Lucky for you, I see a ton of value in this Over. Clemson’s O-Line failed them in a Week 1 loss to Georgia, but they won’t have to face another defense like that until the postseason. They certainly won’t see that sort of attack from this Yellow Jacket defense, who allowed a whopping 73 points to Clemson last season. While Geoff Collins’ program is on the rise, they aren’t at a point where they’re ready to compete in this game. With a get-right win under their belt from last week, I expect Clemson to have no problem reaching the 40 point barrier(in all reality, they could get to 52 themselves). However, through 3 seasons, we’ve learned Geoff Collins is not the kind of coach to throw in the towel when his team is out of a game. He’s going to coach for the full 60 minutes, and considering he’s got a lot of young weapons to work with offensively, I actually think the Jackets will get to 17 in this game. I don’t envision this game going way Over the total, but 52 is simply too low.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State ML(+150) @ Boise State–Sat. 8 PM CT
Oklahoma State has had about as underwhelming of a start as any 2-0 team in the country. They squeaked out a 7 point win over Missouri State in Week 1 before beating Tulsa by 5 last week. However, some context is needed. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch in Week 1 and didn’t get a full week of practice in before the Tulsa game last week. Now that he has the chance to get in a rhythm heading into this Week 3 matchup, I think we’ll see a sharper Sanders in Boise. The Broncos present a feisty matchup towards OK State, especially considering the major question marks on the Cowboy O-Line. That being said, I think we see Sanders completely take over this game; he can do it with both his arm and his legs and has the ability to beat teams over the top with a solid deep ball. If Sanders can play to the level he did during his first two seasons in Stillwater, I believe the OK-State defense can take over from there. The Pokes defense is one of the most experienced in CFB and is solid in every facet; watch out for LB Malcolm Rogriguez to make some noise against a less talented Boise OL. While Boise responded with a convincing win over UTEP last week, I can’t get over how bad they looked in the second half of their opener at UCF. They took a 17 point lead into the half only to come out and go three-and-out 5 straight possessions. It’s important to remember that the Broncos are under new leadership; I’d give the major coaching edge to Mike Gundy over first-time HC Andy Avalos. Because of OKST’s poor start, I think we’re getting quite a bit of value on them here in a game they expect to win. I’ll take the road dog outright.
*CFB(1u): Arizona State -3.5(-110) @ BYU–Sat. 9:15 PM CT
BYU is coming off about as big of an emotional high as possible. They beat rival Utah last week for the first time since 2009, and the 26-17 win resulted in an epic field storm in the wee hours of the night. While they deserve a ton of credit for winning that game, I took away more negative from Utah than I did positive from BYU. Arizona State is a professionally run program led by HC Herm Edwards, and quite frankly, I think they’re gonna smoke BYU late on Saturday night. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels is now a junior with some big-game experience under his belt; so far this season, he has managed the offense very efficiently(73.2 completion %). While I think that trend will continue for him in Provo, this game will be won by the Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils defense racked up 5 sacks last week and are reliable at all 3 levels. I still have little trust in new BYU QB Jaren Hall, especially going into a game where his team is at a significant talent disadvantage. This just missed being a multi-unit play, but I have a strong feeling the Sun Devils blow out BYU.
*3 Team Teaser(0.8u): Nevada +5 @ Kansas State/Ohio State -18.5 vs Tulsa/Oklahoma State +9.5 @ Boise State(+155)–Sat. 1 PM CT
Kansas State was an undervalued team coming into the season, but the one thing that couldn’t happen for them has now happened: QB Skylar Thompson was injured. With the super senior now out indefinetly, the Wildcats now have to turn to Sophomore QB Will Howard, who lost his last 5 starts of the 2020 season. Nevada QB Carson Strong gets all the airtime, but the Wolfpack are a very complete team who have already knocked off a Power 5 team this season. I like Nevada to win, but I feel even better about them being teased to +5. Ohio State is coming off a crushing loss to Oregon that saw their defense fall apart often in the run game. I would imagine that there is a lot of built up frustration from last week that will spill over into this game in a good way. Tulsa’s offense is anything but explosive; in fact, I couldn’t think of a better “get right” spot for this Buckeyes defense. From there, I expect the talent on the Ohio State offense to win out and for this to be a blowout. Oklahoma State explanation is above.
