We went 2-0 in CFB free picks and 6-4 in CFB premium picks last week. Here’s to two more wins– let’s get it (all lines courtesy of BetOnline.ag)!
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Colorado -2 (-116), 2 units: Minnesota comes into Saturday’s matchup in Boulder with the same record as the Colorado Buffaloes but we’re inclined to favor the home team. The Gophers started off their season with a highlight game against Ohio State, and they were competitive until they weren’t. The Buckeyes ascended later in the 2nd half and never looked back, showing off a clear level of talent disparity in the process. Last week the Gophers won a surprisingly close contest against Miami (OH). The Redhawks are a team that regularly bottoms out the Mid-American Conference and yet they gained more yards and more first downs than Minnesota a week ago in Minneapolis. The Gophers are fortunate they committed two turnovers or we might be discussing an 0-2 start for P.J Fleck. Colorado, meanwhile, went toe-to-toe with #5 Texas A&M last Saturday and nearly won. The Aggies got the best of the Buffaloes, winning by 3 points in a 10-7 defensive battle. While I didn’t leave that game feeling high about the Buffaloes offense, they did manage to earn 171 yards on the ground against an SEC defense. They also possessed the ball and made very few mistakes against the Aggies. Back at home after such a close contest with a superior opponent, I have to believe that Minnesota won’t offer the same level of competition this weekend. Since we’re getting under the key number of 3 and the Buffaloes are at home, this is a great buy. I’m on Colorado for 2 units.
Arizona State -3.5 (-113), 1.5 units: This is a sneaky setup for the Arizona State Sun Devils and a supreme let-down spot for BYU. The BYU Cougars are fresh off a huge win last Saturday at home, where they defeated what many pundits considered the Pac-12 favorite in Utah. The win wasn’t necessarily convincing, it was a hard-fought battle throughout, but the Cougars did enough to overcome the Utes in a favorable environment at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Capitalizing on two early turnovers and later a missed field goal by Utah certainly helped. BYU deserves to celebrate that win and be excited about the results, but a confident and disciplined Sun Devils team is on their way to Provo and BYU would be wise to take them seriously. The Sun Devils have done exactly what they’re supposed to do so far, clobbering two inferior opponents in Southern Utah and UNLV. They earned more than 200 yards than SUU and more than 300 yards more than UNLV in those contests; i.e. it was never close. The Herm Edwards tenure at Arizona State has been a good one, with his teams looking more refined and more capable of success every year. The Cougars deserve a ton of credit; they started this season winning against two formidable programs. I just think Arizona State is better on both sides of the ball. Playing in front of a BYU crowd and covering is no easy task, but in a shortened COVID season the Sun Devils went 3-1 ATS last year. With a clear coaching and talent edge, my numbers say Arizona State is a 5 point favorite– I expect them to cover.
