When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been great. 20-14 record thus far with a nice 22% ROI. 2-0 on Free Late night plays
Late night pick this week features two perennial powerhouses of college football in New Mexico and UTEP. Both these teams come into this game at 2-1. Both have defeated New Mexico St already this year. NM beat them 34-25 at home while UTEP went on the road to get a 30-3 victory at NMSU in Week 0. New Mexico also has a win over Houston Baptist before they got pummeled 34-0 last week against A&M. UTEP has a win over Bethune-Cookman and a pummeling of their own at Boise St 54-13 in which they turned the ball over 6 times.
Both these teams are featuring run heavy offenses so far with NM running it 58% of the time and UTEP 66%. Both teams also play at a very slow tempo with NM at 95th for Plays per minute and UTEP at 123rd. Terry Wilson a Kentucky transfer is the QB for NM. He’s got a great completion percentage at 65.1 % so far with 6 TD and only 1 INT. They don’t throw downfield much though only averaging 6.7 Yards per attempt. UTEP has been more successful throwing the ball when they decide to do it at 10.5 YPA, but its still mostly run, run, run.
New Mexico’s defense has been stingy for the most part against the run, so I anticipate UTEP will have to adjust and throw the ball a little more in this game. IF they can take care of the ball I like them to have a slight edge in this matchup as they have been also very good against the run holding opponents to 3.4YPC.
There’s multiple plays for me on this game on both the side and the total. My favorite play is Under 54 -110 2 Units. – I have it at 47, so lots of value here. I don’t see this game somehow getting to 31-24 without a lot of turnovers and I expect a game filled with run, run, run, run, incomplete, punt. I also like the UTEP side a little better. They were playing ok against Boise outside of the turnovers and special teams miscues. That game was closer than the final score. I like UTEP +1.5 -110 for a unit, and UTEP ML +110 for 1 unit. And since we are already at this point and the Teaser sets up nice I am playing that as well. 6 Point Teaser UTEP +7.5, Under 60 2 Units.
Here’s to hoping we end Saturday night with a bang. You can get all my premium plays for this weekend for College Football and NFL here at TheOddsBreakers.
