NFL 2021 Record: 6-4, +3.15u
*NFL(1u): Bears/Browns UNDER 44.5(-110)–12 PM CT
Justin Fields will make his first career start today on the road against a legitimate playoff team in the Browns. On principle alone, I like to fade rookie QB’s making their first career road start, and it’s easier to do so when their offense has proven to be stagnant under a veteran QB. It would be a miracle in my mind for the Bears to reach the 20 point mark, and given the Browns athleticism on the defensive side of the ball, I think they can hold Chicago closer to 10. However, the Bears defense matches up well with Cleveland’s running attack and should be up for the challenge today. Baker Mayfield is less than 100% with a shoulder issue, and WR Jarvis Landry has already been ruled out. The priority in Cleveland right now is the get those guys healthy for the rest of the season, not to run up the score against a lowly Bears team. I expect a pretty vanilla game plan from the Browns, which should play right into the Bears’ hands. This game has Under written all over it.
*2 Team Teaser(1u): Bills -1 vs Washington FT, Dolphins/Raiders UNDER 51(-110)–12 PM CT
The Bills got right in Miami last week in an absolute thumping of the Dolphins. For as much hype as the WFT defense got entering the season, they sure haven’t looked very good against the pass, which sets up horribly against Buffalo’s pass-first offense. I can’t trust the WFT offense to go punch-for-punch with Josh Allen. The Bills very well could blow out Washington today, but I feel more confident in teasing them down to -1. The Dolphins will be led by Jacoby Brisset today; while I expect a better performance than he showed last week after coming off the bench, Miami can only go so far with him at the helm. While their offense is suspect right now, I still have faith in the Dolphins defense. Derek Carr isn’t 100%, and the Raiders aren’t dynamic enough offensively to make me worry about how the Dolphins will matchup. I’ll tease the total up and take the under.
