Entering Week 5 of the CFB season, my CFB record sits at 26-22-1, +9.81u. I will have my full card out by Friday morning as we gear up for another loaded slate. My premium plays have hit at a 67% clip and netted my members +16.35u over the past month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Virginia/Miami OVER 62(-110)–6:30 PM CT
Each of these teams is 2-2 to start the season, and neither is particularly happy with how things have played out up to this point. Virginia started the year 2-0, but have dropped back-to-back conference games and seen their defense yield 96 points over that stretch. Losing to Alabama is nothing to feel bad about, but Miami dropped a home game to Michigan State that, quite frankly, the Spartans had complete control of. The biggest question surrounding this game is whether Miami QB D’Eriq King will be good enough to go. It appeared yesterday that he was leaning towards playing, but the latest rumblings out of Miami haven’t been so promising. King’s absence would be a huge loss, but I do think we saw enough out of backup Jake Garcia last week to realistically believe he can show competence against this Virginia defense. Miami doesn’t have the most explosive run game, but they do feature a steady #1 back in Cam’Ron Harris. The Virginia front 7 has been dreadful in conference play, so the path is clear for Miami to establish the run and give their young QB some good looks down the field. Rhett Lashlee is proven as an OC, and I’d expect a good gameplan from the ‘Canes. Virginia’s offense has proven to be quite explosive with lefty gunslinger Brennan Armstrong at the helm; Armstrong is averaging 426 yards/game, good for 2nd in all of CFB. I’m not high on Miami’s defense at all; the notion that Manny Diaz is some defensive savant has to end. The Cavs can get one dimensional at times and veer away from the run, but I would expect Bronco Mendenhall to refine his gameplan given Virginia’s failures over the last 2 weeks. Neither defense is very polished, and both teams play with quite a bit of pace. I anticipate a back-and-forth game that flirts with reaching the 70 point mark. Over is the play.
