I can’t emphasize this enough- Vegas NEEDS to win this weekend after losing BIG TIME in Week 3. Don’t get caught betting a side that everyone is throwing money on, yet the number isn’t moving – that usually means the books know something and the opposite side hits more often than not. Pay attention to line moves and where the bets are– it matters.
I’m sure you’ve heard by now, but in case you haven’t… we went up 26 units in Week 3, going 8-7 for +6 units in single NFL picks and 7-0 for +20 units in teasers– let’s goooo!!! Here are my favorite free plays for Week 4!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units
Jets +7 (-115), 1.5 units: Whoa whoa whoa, I’m taking the JETS on Sunday? Correct! Next to my NY Giants that’s probably one of the harder bets to make in all of professional sports, but here we are. Before you think I’m crazy (and I may be), let me explain. The Jets are coming off a hugely embarrassing loss in Denver, where they just could not move the ball against an elite Broncos defense at altitude. Fine, they’re not the first team to get stifled in the Mile-High City. Zach Wilson has also struggled, a lot. After showing some real signs of stardom in Week 1 in a tight contest against Carolina, the rookie QB has fell off a cliff. Wilson already has 7 INTs and he’s barely eclipsed 600 yards in 3 games. While that’s not exactly the kind of production you’d want from a top draft pick, this is the NFL and a learning curve should be expected. One thing’s for sure, the Jets won’t face the level of defense they did last week. The Titans are a good team, but we don’t think they’re great. Behind the able legs of Derrick Henry and disciplined coaching from Mike Vrabel, the Titans are a smash-mouth, wear-you-down team that should easily run away with the AFC South this year (particularly thanks to the Colts’ failures). In their first two games against exceptional QBs, Tennessee’s defense allowed 68 points and 813 yards. Again, that was only in TWO games. Thanks to a comeback victory against Seattle in Week 2 (and 500+ yards of their own), the Titans avoided an agonizing 0-2 start and proceeded to whack their AFC South rival in Week 3. Now, likely feeling high and confident once again, Tennessee travels to East Rutherford and looks to get an easy win. Not so fast, my friends.
The Jets have a lot to improve on but, in my opinion, they still have a coach that’s going to work. Robert Saleh has a way of effecting his players that’s rare, at least according to the stories of San Francisco defenders in years past. Saleh is a motivational tough guy that looks like he could get out there and play defensive lineman right now. The Jets have been on the road for 2/3 games of this early season and in their only home game, they faced a Patriots squad looking to avoid an 0-2 start. The Titans defense is ranked in the bottom five in both yards allowed per play and the Jets, on the other hand, are surprisingly top 10 in a few important defensive categories, including yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. I think Coach Saleh will get his team UP for this game, and while the Titans should win, they should give Zach Wilson more room and more lanes to make completions and gain some needed confidence. Believe it or not, the lowly Jets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I’m on New York!
Seahawks +3 (-125), 2.50 units: Something’s going on in Seattle and it’s hard to pinpoint. Their defense looks like it needs a ton of work, we’re used to that by now, and they absolutely cannot score points in the second half of games. In Week 1, they only scored a single touchdown in the final 30 minutes. In Week 2, including OT, they scored a total of 6 points in the second half. And in Week 3, they didn’t score at all. Even more confusing is the play of Russel Wilson, which is not on par with Seattle’s productivity. As usual, Russel is starting the year out strong. With a QB rating of 133.6, Wilson has a 73.3% completion rate and has thrown for 895 yards, 7 TDs, and no INTs in 3 games. But Russ needs help. Bad offensive line play and a lukewarm rushing attack aren’t helping. I can see Pete Carrol and the Seattle coaches drawing up some creativity in their playbook this week to throw off the home team Niners. They need a jolt of some kind.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have come into 2021 with a ton of confidence. Plagued by injuries in 2020, a rejuvenated Niners team has big hopes this year and they came out on fire. Against the Lions in the season opener, it felt like they were “playing with their food,” clobbering Detroit early only to let them come back and hang in the game (and cover their line at +8.5). A Week 2 win over a solid Eagles team, at Philly, wasn’t a bad look either. Last Sunday night Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got the best out of San Francisco, holding off a second half comeback by Jimmy G and company. Garoppolo is playing with plenty of confidence himself, distancing himself from rookie Trey Lance, who many believe can be a franchise QB and exceptional talent when his time comes. All that said, it’s hard to get a firm handle on the Niners. Their defense has been okay; they’ve allowed nearly 400 yards per game against mostly mediocre offenses so far. And their offense, although always innovative and full of talent, doesn’t ever seem to take over games. The Niners will welcome the Seahawks into Levi Stadium Sunday and while they should be favored, injuries at RB still plague their offense and now George Kittle, arguably their most important offensive weapon, may not play.
The Seahawks need to win. They’re 1-2 in the NFC West, a division where you don’t want to fall too far behind. The Rams and Cardinals are both 3-0 and the Niners would go 3-1 if they win Sunday, separating themselves from Seattle even further. Divisional games always have a different feel, and if you’re giving me 3 points with Russel Wilson in a game that feels like a “must win,” I’m going to take it. There’s a reason this line is so juiced– the books think the Hawks will keep it close, too. Take Seattle and don’t think twice about it.
