Saturday October 2nd Picks
*EPL: Leeds to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (+105) vs Watford
Leeds are a MUCH better team than the 0-3-3 record suggests. They have actually struggled to score goals this season which is very unlike Leeds who tactically never stop doing everything in their power to score, no matter what the scoreline is. This tactic makes them very vulnerable defensively but Watford are just as vulnerable, not having kept a Premier League clean sheet yet this season. Leeds are coming off of an underserved 2-1 loss to a very strong West Ham side, and welcoming Watford to Ellen road is a game that they are easily favourites for. Ellen road is also a very tough place to play for any visiting squad. Leeds fans are yet to see a home win this season, so the atmosphere will be outstanding and difficult for an away side to manage. I have no doubt that their will be over 1.5 goals in this match, and I honestly expect Leeds to score at least three and hand Premier League newcomers, Watford a big defeat.
*EPL: Manchester United to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-130) vs Everton
I hit on a Manchester United pick this week, and my reasoning for this pick will be along the same lines as the one midweek. With Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City in such good form, United need to win this game with the horrifying stretch of games they have coming up. Their last Premier League game was a disappointing loss to Aston Villa, but that was a Villa team in a different spot then Everton are in right now. All but one of Manchester United’s wins this season have been over 1.5 goals, and ALL of Everton’s games this season have gone over 1.5 goals. Everton are a good team with a good squad, but one thing they lack is significant depth. Their attack heavily relies on Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, two players who will miss the contest due to injury. The attacking threat for Everton won’t be as convincing without these two players, and it will be tremendously difficult to prevent United’s overwhelming attack from scoring goals in this one. Expect United to win this one and pile some goals in against Everton.
Sunday October 3rd Picks
*EPL: Leicester City to Win (+130) @ Crystal Palace
Despite only having six points from six games, Crystal Palace have actually impressed in the past couple games with a BIG 3-0 win vs Spurs and deserved draws against very in-from sides in Brighton and West Ham. For this reason, I think the line is deservedly giving Crystal Palace a bit too much respect here. As I said, they only have six points in six games this season, and Leicester are in desperate need of a win for a team that has top four aspirations. Leicester have the more established and experienced squad, and they will feel that this is a huge opportunity to snatch three points and get their season started. The Foxes (Leicester) have scored in all Premier League games but one, which was a 1-0 loss against Manchester City. While Palace have only kept two clean sheets and scored six goals this season. So yes, Crystal Palace have looked good recently, but they also look vulnerable and Leicester is too good of a team to give Palace this much respect. Take this pick.
*EPL: Manchester City Double Chance & Under 4.5 Goals (-138) @ Liverpool
The game of the weekend comes on Sunday as City visit Anfield in a match that any football fan cannot miss. I want to start by explaining the reasoning of the under 4.5 goals as we all know both teams are incredible on the attacking end. But, Manchester City have only conceded ONE goal this season and are finally starting to look like that real force we’ve grown to see in recent years. Liverpool have only conceded four goals and remain the only unbeaten team left in the Premier League. I know it’s a small sample size but Liverpool have only played one of the traditional “top six” sides this season, which ended in a 1-1 draw against Chelsea. While Manchester City have played both Chelsea and Tottenham in games that ended both 1-0. The point is, when playing difficult opposition, these two managers are so tactically talented that the games almost always end in low scoring affair.
Now, for the why I picked Man City to win or draw. Well, last time at Anfield, City actually beat Liverpool 4-1. Liverpool have actually only won, one in the last six Premier League meetings between these two sides (all but one ending in under 4.5 goals). This Manchester City team are just too good tactically to break down. Pep has them with the ball for majority of the game and when they do lose it, the constant pressure to win it back is too tough to beat. Liverpool are a great counter-attacking team and in theory could benefit from trying to hit City on the counter… but it won’t be enough. I could easily see a 1-1 draw, and I definitely expect City to take at least a point from this one.
