When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been great. 30-20 record thus far with a nice 24% ROI. 3-0 on Free Late night plays.
This week’s late night Free Pick features a Pac-12 battle between UCLA and Arizona State. UCLA -3.5; 55.5 are the current lines. Both teams are 3-1 coming in with losses to strong Non Power Five opponents. UCLA lost to Fresno State at home 40-37 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close. Fresno fumbled in the Red zone with 9 minutes left going in to score. Next possession they fumbled on the first play inside their own 20. Both led to UCLA Touchdowns and allowed them to get back in the game. Fresno outgained UCLA 569-395. ASU lost to BYU on the road 27-17. They outgained BYU 426-361, but 4 turnovers did them in.
I think these two programs are the top in the Pac-12 South early on this year and there’s a good chance whoever wins this plays in the conference title game.
UCLA’s Chip Kelly offense has been chugging along so far averaging 39 PPG. 428 YPG so far and a very balanced attack with 234 Yards through the air and 194 on the ground. The concerning part for me is they have been boom or bust. In non-garbage time they are averaging 3.84 plays per drive. Defensively they have been stout against the run allowing just 64 YPG on the ground. Teams have been able to move the ball through the air a bit, primarily Fresno, but they have been susceptible to big plays.
ASU features dual threat sophomore QB Jayden Daniels. He is extremely mobile and likes to push the ball down the field in the passing game. They have also features a balanced attack averaging 32.5 PPG and 438 YPG. 228 through the air and 210 on the ground. The have an elite offensive lines in the running game and it should be a battle with the UCLA front 7. Their defense has played havoc on opponents so far this year. The are 6th in turnovers forced, and are one also one of the top teams against the run. If they clean up one spot where they have had trouble which is on third down, I think UCLA is in for a rough day trying to move the football consistently.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson the QB for UCLA has been amazing so far this year, but he hasn’t faced a defense quite like this one. I think ASU can get some stops on third down. UCLA is gonna score some points, don’t get me wrong, but if they contain DTR which I expect the old ball coach to find some ways to do I think they have an edge here. Gimme Herm over Chip in a battle of old NFL coaches and watch the Sun Devils win the late night battle in Pasadena. Take ASU +3.5, 2 Units and a healthy sprinkle on the Moneyline.
