Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st! 41-32 in College Football up 15 Units and 33-30 in the NFL up 6U!
Chicago vs Las Vegas -5.5 O/U 44.5
The Narrative on this game since before the season even started has been that it will be a home game for the Bears because lots of their fans will go to Vegas, but I think that people are forgetting that there is travel, officiating, and a lack of similarity of their real stadium all baked into the 3 point advantage. This should be around a 2 assigned for The Raiders in their home field. I really do not understand why the Raiders are not a clean touchdown here. The Bears are absolutely terrible on offense and it’s even worse when it comes to road games with the Bears averaging only 184 yards per game away from Chicago. The Bears are also dead last in yards per play away from home at 3.3. One would think that the Bears defense could keep them in this game today but the stats say different. The Raiders rank 8th in QB pressure rate while the Bears rank 22nd. Both teams rank next to each other in defensive EPA per play and the Raiders get the nod on the offense. My power ratings has the Raiders winning by 7 points if you only give them 2 points for home field advantage. My Algorithm has the Raiders winning by 10. Going with the Raiders to win by margin.
LV Raiders -5.5 – 2 stars
Green Bay vs Cincinnati +3 O/U 50.5
Lots of people look at these teams and the first thing that they say is bad defense for both of these teams but the stats kinda tell a different story here. Cincinnati ranks number 7 in opponent EPA per play while Green Bay ranks 22nd even when counting that bad first game vs the Saints. Since that loss, Green bay has only allowed 17 points twice and 28 points to San Francisco that was mainly garbage yards and pass interference calls. Neither team has really been killing it in offensive EPA with Green Bay ranking 16th and Cincinnati ranking 22nd. Cincinnati also ranks 5th in defensive DVOA as well as opponent yards per play while Green Bay ranks 8th. I see both teams stopping each other to settle for FGs so I’ll take the under here.
Under 50.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Dallas to -1 with the Browns to +8 – 2 stars (this isn’t a premium)
