2021 CFB: 36-26-1, +17.01u
Premium Plays: 26-13-1, +20.38u
*CFB(1u): Houston/Tulane OVER 59.5(-110)–Thurs. 6:30 PM CT
Tulane might be 1-4 on the season, but I think they are a live dog in this one against an overvalued Houston team. The Green Wave played Oklahoma to a 1 possession game to start the season despite being distracted by Hurricane Ida. Things have gone a bit haywire since then; last week, for example, they got down 17-0 to East Carolina in the first quarter and simply couldn’t make up that margin. The defense has failed them up to this point, giving up 61 to Ole Miss and 52 to the aforementioned East Carolina. Houston is led by offensive-minded HC Dana Holgerson, and his Cougars are coming off an impressive 45 point performance at Tulsa. Even if Tulane makes marginal improvement defensively, they are almost guaranteed to allow the Cougars into the 30-35 point range. However, where I feel great about this Over is with the Tulane offense. Michael Pratt is still a young QB who’s prone to mistakes, but he has proven to be capable of leading an explosive offense. He benefits from having 2-3 explosive RB’s to work with as well as an array of reliable WR’s. The 52-29 final might not make this obvious, but I believe the Green Wave found something in the second half last week in Greenville. Houston has only faced 1 solid offense this season(Texas Tech), and they allowed 38 points. Tulane plays with more tempo than any team Houston has faced this season; combined with Tulane’s desperation, I expect to see a solid offensive output from the Green Wave. Dana Holgerson is absolutely willing to match the up-tempo nature from the Green Wave, so I think each of these teams will have plenty of chances to put a dent in the scoreboard. Over is the play.
