The American Athletic Conference is sort of like the little brother that you only want around when it is convenient for you. For instance, when you need a tougher out of conference opponent that won’t destroy your strength of schedule like a North Carolina A&T would. Also it’s nice to look at the conference when you need a new coach that is dying to get into or back into the Power 5 coaching rankings. However, sometimes the little brother surprises you and leaves you sitting back on Saturday going how the hell did we lose that game. The American is by far the 6th strongest conference in the NCAA and they play a great brand of football.
Notable Coaching Changes
- UCF- Scott Frost is going back to his Alma Mater Nebraska. He leaves behind a great deal of talent for the former Missouri offensive coordinator Josh Huepel. Josh will look to continue the no huddle and while adding a more vertical attack.
- SMU- With Chad Morris of to Arkansas, Sonny Dykes will step in with his Air Raid offense in SMU. Sonny Dykes roots were built-in Texas. Could he be the guy to turn around the program?
AAC East
UCF– Last Season 13-0, Over/Under 9 wins
The University of Central Florida will be a team on a mission this season. They feel snubbed that they didn’t get their chance to play for the National Title after a Cinderella season. UCF finished 13-0 after a Peach Bowl win over Auburn. Mckenzie Milton is back who boasted a 37-9 TD / INT ratio is one of the best Quarterbacks in college. Big names like Mike Hughes, Shaquem Griffin and Tre’quan Smith are gone but this team won’t miss a beat and are priced accordingly. The Schedule is favorable for them to run the table with AAC west games against Memphis (possible AAC Championship preview) and Navy. UCF’s out of conference schedule includes SC State, UNC, FAU, and Pitt. Expect UCF to do great work against this schedule and compete for a chance at the National Championship worst case scenario a New Years 6 Bowl. Bet the Over.
USF- Last Season 10-2, Over/Under 8.5 wins
If USF can match last seasons success and finish either 10-2 or 9-3 they may be saying goodbye again to another coach as Charlie Strong will be a candidate that will be atop of a lot of AD’s interview list. They are not returning a ton of offense mostly due to Quinton Flowers graduating and heading into the NFL. Former Alabama and Arizona St. QB transfer Blake Barnett should get the first crack at the starting job. At RB they will look to Jordan Cronkrite to carry the load along with Elijah Mack. After they get done beating up against Elon in week 1 their week 2 matchup against Georgia Tech could tell us everything we need to know about this team. Other notable out of division games include Illinois, and Houston. Realistically 9-3 is most likely. I like the over but will look to play a lot of their Over/Under if the market drastically has drastically for the loss of Flowers and Company.
Temple- 7-6 last season, Over/Under 6.5 wins
The first season from their new head coach Geoff Collins started like a bad nightmare. A blowout loss to Notre Dame to start the season, and an extremely close win against cross city rival Villanova (FCS School). They had an unimpressive win against UMass and then they were blown out by USF in primetime. Mid-season Geoff Collins decided to sit starter Logan Marchi and turn the offense over to Frank Nutile and things improve quickly as went on win 5 out of their last 6.. For 2018 they get back injury ridden RB Ryquell Armstead who is very dangerous. On defense a name to watch is Quincy Roche. As a backup last year Quincy recorded 7 sacks. Out of conference games against Nova, Buffalo, Maryland and Boston College. On the other side of the conference they got lucky with Tulsa but draw Houston and Navy. I said it on the podcast I am high on this team I think Geoff Collins knows what he is doing and I see him as the type to try to build a program. I would avoid going on either side but catching a future at +1500 is worth it with the ability to hedge out late for profit is worth it.
Cincinnati- 4-8 last season, Over/Under 5 wins
2nd year coach Luke Fickell is back and this team keeps on building. A great team to play against last year as they were 4-8 ATS. Fickell will return his top weapons with Hayden Moore, Gerrid Doaks, and Kahlil Lewis. Fickell has been doing a great job of bringing in talent and convincing that talent to stay home. With young talent comes growing pains and I expect that to continue for Cincinnati. Tough out of conference games against UCLA. Miami OH, Ohio but at least they have Alabama A&M. Looking at the rest of their schedule they look like a 4 win team. If you find a 5.5 Under take it otherwise avoid.
ECU- 3-9 Last season, Over / Under 3.5 wins
Scott Montgomery is officially on the hot seat at least in my eyes. At 6-18 over the past few seasons he needs to right this Pirate ship asap. Their offensive MVP is Trevon Brown, has over 100 career catches and almost 2000 receiving yards. On their schedule out of conference they have to play UNC, Virginia Tech, Old Dominion and NC A&T. At Least A&T is a for sure win. The only other possible winnable games on the schedule are Connecticut and Old Dominion. Take the Under.
UCONN- 3-9 Last Season,Over/Under 3.5 Wins
Randy Edsall is back and showed a glimmers of hope last season when they beat Temple in AAC action. David Pindell will get the nod at QB after being replaced last season and winning back the job. Out of conference schedule is tough Boise State, Rhode Island. Syracuse and Umass. They Should beat Rhode Island, ECU and UMass. Would need to pull an upset over another team like they did last season. I would avoid this over under.
AAC West
Memphis 10-3 Last Year, Over/Under 8.5 Wins
If Mike Norvell has another great year in Memphis we should expect the Athletic Directors from the Power 5 conferences knocking down his door. A QB battle is expected between David Moore and ASU transfer Brady White after Riley Ferguson and Anthony Miller no longer lead the offense. Memphis is very deep at their skill positions with Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor and Tony Pollard. Returning good production on the defensive side of the football. A very weak out of conference schedule with Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama. One interesting out of conference game is when they travel to Missouri. We already love the over in that game. My prediction for this team is 9-3 but could easily win 10 or 11. I would pass on this one more value to come.
Houston- 7-5 last season, Over / Under 7.5
Major Apple will look to bring Houston back to the top of the AAC. When looking at the roster one name stands out clearly and that is Ed Oliver. The defensive line man is expected to go top 5 in the draft. I can honestly say I am excited to see what D’Eriq King will do with a full season under center. Terrance Williams a grad transfer will get the lion share of the carries at running back. Out of conference they will be playing Rice, Arizona, Texas Tech, and Texas Southern. There 2nd game against Arizona will tell a lot about Houston season. I think there is value in the OVER here wouldn’t go large but is worth a play.
Navy- 7-6 last season, Over / Under 7 wins
Ken Niumatalolo is the most tenured coach in the conference and didn’t leave Navy for the Arizona job. They return two separate quarterbacks who ran for over 1,000 yards but Malcolm Perry will run the offense and Zach Abbey will move over to play WR. The schedule is set up for them to win some really easy games Out of conference they will be playing Hawaii, Lehigh, Air Force, Notre Dame and Army. Bet the Over.
SMU- 7-6 last season, Over/Under 5.5 wins
Chad Morris is out and insert Sonny Dykes who is known for his prolific passing attack. Leading the attack will be Ben Hicks who is coming off his best season yet. Hicks will have plenty of talent surrounding him at running back. After Courtland Sutton left for the NFL Draft it leaves a big hole at wide receiver. Out of conferences games at North Texas, TCU, Michigan and Southern Baptist. Bet the Under.
Tulane 5-7 last year, Over / Under 5.5
Will Fritz will look to keep the momentum going that his team formed towards the end of last season. Last season resume included an upset over Houston and barely missing a bowl game. Jonathan Banks will be under center will need to step up more than ever for this team to be successful. However, this team has a lot to replace on defense. Their out of conference schedule includes Wake Forest, Nicholls State, UAB, and Ohio State. With the amount of freshmen and sophomores expected to play valuable minutes I see this as a team to Bet The Under On.
Tulsa- 2-10 last season, Over / Under 4.5
Philip Montgomery remains two keep components to this offense with Luke Skipper at Quarterback and Shamari Brooks at running back. They return a good portion of the offensive line. Montgomery did want to jumpstart the improvement on defense and brought in a good amount of JUCO talent that will keep for starting jobs. Out of conference games against Central Arkansas, Texas, Arkansas State and Arkansas. I honestly only see 2 obvious wins on the schedule with Uconn, and Central Arkansas. Tulane is the only game on the schedule that is probably around a pick’em. Every other game on the schedule Tulsa should be the dog. I love the Under.
