Premium Record: 31-15-1, +25.25u
*MLB(1u): Rays ML(-106) @ Red Sox–6:07 PM CT
The Red Sox took Game 3 of this series last night and now need just one more win to advance to the ALCS. They’ll turn to SP Eduardo Rodriguez tonight who is pitching on just 3 days rest after today’s projected SP Nick Pivetta was needed late last night. Rodriguez has poor numbers on the surface(4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), yet his FIP, or expected ERA, sits at a much lower 3.31. Even though the analytical guys love Rodriguez, I simply can’t trust him in this sort of matchup. The Rays are among the best offenses in the league at hitting lefties, and once Rodriguez is pulled, the Red Sox will have to rely on a bullpen that amassed a measly 1.39 WHIP during the regular season. That lies in stark contrast to a Tampa Bay bullpen that posted a 1.15 WHIP this season, good for 2nd in all of baseball. The Rays will open with Colin McHugh and unload their bullpen from there, and quite honestly, I expect that strategy to work. The Boston offense is very good, so I won’t bother picking out numbers to prove otherwise, but Tampa holds the major pitching advantage entering this do-or-die Game 4. I like the Rays to squeak out a win in Boston today and force a Game 5 back in St. Petersburg.
