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Ball State vs Eastern Michigan +1.5 O/U 55.5
Some handicaps come easy if you know how to understand pace of play and the weather report. Ball State started off horrible and then greatly improved their defense holding Toledo, Army and Western Michigan all under 22 points. They also have a pretty slow pace at 26 seconds per play and only 67 plays per game. Eastern Michigan on the other hand isn’t exactly known for their offense and when they played teams that weren’t named UMASS, ST. Francis and Texas State, they couldn’t even score more than 20 points. Eastern Michigan ranks 108th in plays per game at 65.4 and a very slow pace of play at 27.14 seconds per play. Eastern Michigan’s Red Zone defense has been stopping opponents from scoring TDs and they only allow 22 points per game after 6 games. The Eagle’s defensive pass EPA ranks 24th in the nation which is pretty good for a MAC team. This is going to be a sloppy game with potential rain and 16 MPH winds. I like the under here to hit with ease.
Under 55.5 points 2.5 stars
Auburn vs Arkansas -4.5 O/U 53.5
This spread is a bit low because of the market thinking that Auburn played Georgia better than Arkansas so therefore they might be the better team. I am going to call BS on that. Arkansas has had the tougher schedule having to play 4 ranked teams to Auburn’s 2 and the Hogs still rank a nice 21st in EPA margin to Auburn’s 60th. Also, the Tiger’s win vs LSU isn’t aging all that well while the Hog’s win against Texas looks pretty solid. Arkansas has performed well vs top opponents minus Georgia and Arkansas strength of schedule ranks 3rd in the nation to Auburn’s 60th. Even after all of this, the Hogs have a slight yards per play advantage over the Tigers. I think this is a good spot for the Hogs to redeem those 2 recent losses.
Arkansas -4.5 – 2 stars
