Baltimore vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47
Baltimore has been on a tear this year since that weird Raiders game they lost in overtime. No matter what this team keeps going strong even through bad injuries and Lamar Jackson is a huge part of that. In saying that, the Ravens have also been the luckiest team from a winning perspective in the league. This team should have lost to Detroit due to an officiating blunder and clutch performances, they got the job done on a 66 yard field goal. Other close games were vs Kansas City and Indianapolis. The Bengals on the other hand look to be on a mission. They spent a ton of money on the defense and it looks like it is paying off. Joe Burrow to Jamar Chase has really paid off so far and Joe is right aligned with Lamar Jackson in passing EPA but on defense, the edge goes to Cincinnati ranking 7th in opponent EPA per play to Baltimore’s 12th. Baltimore’s strength of schedule is a bit better than Cincinnati’s but their opponents were all offensive based or bad in general minus the Broncos. Finally, Cincinnati has the better defense ranking 7th in opponent EPA Margin to Baltimore’s 12th. The Bengals have a .4 yards per play advantage over the Ravens. I’ll grab the points here and go with Cincinnati to keep it close.
Cincinnati +6.5 – 3 stars
Detroit vs LA Rams -15 O/U 50.5
Ok, this is the big drama game with Jared Goff coming back to LA to prove that he is an NFL quarterback to his X-girlfriend Sean McVay and the Shams. On the other side of the coin, the Rams want to destroy the Lions to prove they made the right move right? WRONG! Or at least, maybe wrong. Why would the Rams care to beat a guy who gave them their heart and soul for all of these years. I have to think that Jared Goff has some relationships with this team and being that the Rams are doing so well with Stafford, they really have nothing to prove right now. Looking at the metrics in this game, it is quite obvious that LA can destroy this team in the passing game and LA has most matchup advantages but if Detroit can at least blitz Stafford hard and try to have him get rid of that ball, they might be able to create some havoc. I think that Detroit needs to commit to the run as well to keep time of possession in their favor. Dan Campbell called this team out after the Bengals bungled them up pretty good. My number is Rams 31-20 and the back door will be open this game if it gets out of hand.
Detroit +15 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Refuse to lose teaser is 3-3! 6pt teaser with the Packers to -2.5 with New England down to -1 – 2 stars
