2021 CFB: 51-39-1(57%), +17.96u
Premium Plays: 38-20-1(65%), +27.07u
*CFB(1.5u): Kansas State/Texas Tech UNDER 60.5–Sat. 11 AM CT
Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in all of college football(59), which limits their possessions as well as their opponents’. While the Wildcat defense has allowed 35 PPG over their last 2 games against Oklahoma and Iowa State, it has taken uber-efficient performances from each of their opponents to have that kind of success. Texas Tech is still stuck playing their backup QB Henry Colombi; aside from the occasional connection on a deep throw, he doesn’t provide the same type of threat that K-State has been accustomed to this season. The Red Raiders are starting to rely more on their ground game with RB SaRodorick Thompson back healthy; running just 68.5 plays/game, this Tech offense doesn’t fit the up-tempo, high-flying stereotype that is typically applied to them. As long as Kansas State can limit the breakaway runs from Thompson, they should limit Tech’s explosiveness through the air given they have one of the better CB combos in the Big 12. Texas Tech has struggled with dynamic offenses like Texas and TCU this season, but against more mediocre offenses(Houston, West Virginia, etc.), they’ve actually held up pretty well. The Red Raiders’ strength on D is in their LB room, which should set them up well to contain the threat of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. Wildcat QB Skylar Thompson is much more of a game manager and isn’t going to be asked to throw the ball all over the yard. Given the lack of possessions each team expects to receive as well as how these teams match up, this total just above 60 is far too high.
*CFB(1.5u): Pitt -3 vs Clemson–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The OddsBreakers Podcast”, which aired Thursday morning. Thankfully, this line hasn’t moved since we recorded. Catch our breakdown from 22:12 to 29:59 using the podcast link below; me and Kiev are both in agreement that Pitt is the right side.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oddsbreakers/id1252520163?i=1000539266714
*CFB(1u): Florida State -35.5 vs UMASS–Sat. 11 AM CT
Is Florida State a particularly good football team? No. Is there any reason they shouldn’t win this game by 50? Also no. UMASS is a bottom dweller in the FBS, which can best be confirmed by the fact that they were tied with UCONN heading into the 4th quarter of their last game. Florida State stumbled out of the gates to an 0-4 start, but they’ve seemed to turn a corner coming off 2 straight wins against Syracuse and North Carolina. Rarely would I ever lay over 5 TD’s with a 2-4 team, but that should tell you how confident I am that the ‘Noles win by half-a-hundred tomorrow.
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss -8.5 vs LSU–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
LSU completed one of the weirder upsets I’ve ever seen when they beat Florida last week. Coming off 2 straight demoralizing losses to Auburn and Kentucky that sealed Coach O’s fate, the Tigers looked like an inspired group last week. That’s great and all, but it still wasn’t good enough to save their HC’s job; it was announced a day after their win that Orgeron would be gone after the season. I certainly don’t think that dynamic helps entering this matchup, but aside from playing psychologist, the Tigers simply don’t match up well with this Ole Miss team. Without their top 2 CB’s, this LSU defense is going to have a tough time dealing with what is arguably the best offense in College Football. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is terrific as both a runner and passer, but what really makes the Rebel offense go is their 3-headed RB-by-committee approach. The Rebs have totally bullied teams in the run game this season, rushing for 263 yards/game(good for 7th in CFB). If the Rebs can get things clicking early on offense, this LSU defense has proven to lay down and quit once they’re down(see the Kentucky game 2 weeks ago). While the Tigers’ run game was historically bad for most of the season, I’ll concede that they’ve seemed to figure things out over the last 2 weeks. This Ole Miss defense could be tired coming off a high-paced game at Tennessee last week, but they’re a much improved unit that should be able to win up front and get some pressure on the immobile Max Johnson. If Ole Miss gets out to a hot start, I think this should be an easy cover. But, in any case, I think Ole Miss’s offensive explosivity is going to win out and yield a double-digit Rebs victory.
*2 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Iowa State -1 vs Oklahoma State AND Oklahoma State/Iowa State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oklahoma State might be undefeated, but I think they’ll probably finish 3-3 down the stretch. They’ve won a ton of close games and caught some good breaks, but the offense has shown almost no development throughout the course of the season. Mike Gundy is usually a creative play-caller, but because he can’t trust QB Spencer Sanders to take care of the ball, the Cowboys often revert to a predictable run-first offense. Iowa State faced a similar style of offense in Kansas State last week and is set up well at all three levels defensively to shut down what is simply not a good Oklahoma State offense. With that said, I believe Oklahoma State has the best defense in the Big 12. They completely shut down Texas in the second half(the Horns had just 1 yard in the 4Q) and showed sure tackling and physicality up front throughout the game. Iowa State RB Breece Hall is among the best backs in College Football, but I trust Oklahoma State’s solid group of LB’s to contain Hall and put this game on the arm of Brock Purdy. Purdy is a 4th year player who should be able to move the chains, but because the Cyclones don’t have much explosiveness on the outside, he is usually forced to target his TE’s over the middle of the field. While ISU can be pretty efficient, this style of play leads to them running just 67 plays/game(99th in CFB). I’m confident Purdy and the Cyclones get it done, but I also think this is a very low-scoring game where we see each defense take the forefront. I’ll tease Iowa State down to a 1 point favorite and take the Under at an inflated 53.
*CFB(1u): Boston College +5.5 @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT
Boston College took a major hit to their high hopes for this season when QB Phil Jurkovec suffered a season-ending hand injury. Dennis Grosel has had mixed results filling in Jurkovec’s place, which includes both a nice win against Missouri but also a blowout loss last week to NC State in a game they were just 3 point home underdogs. I’m willing to put last week’s result aside and simply acknowledge that Jeff Hafley has proven to be a better HC already in year 2 than Louisville’s Scott Satterfield. The Cardinals’ roster is filled with talent, yet they always seem to find ways to lose games at the end. QB Malik Cunningham is a true dual-threat talent, but I’m not completely sold that he has evaded the turnover issues that have haunted him in the past. Hafley is a defensive-minded HC(was previously the DC at Ohio State), and I’d expect a good gameplan from him and his staff after a disappointing result last week. Louisville has a pretty soft defense, and given BC’s success in the run game this year, this seems like a perfect “get right” spot for the Golden Eagles. I’ll put a standard 1u play on BC +5.5, but I’ll also sprinkle 0.5u on the ML at a valuable +180.
*CFB(0.5u): Boston College ML(+180) @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT
See analysis above.
