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Oregon vs UCLA -1.5 O/U 59
What is Oregon? Are they the team that can beat Ohio State or the team that loses to a banged up Stanford. The answer to that is both but that doesn’t mean that they are better than UCLA. Looking at strength of schedule both are pretty comparable with both teams facing one team in the top 15 in power ratings and EPA Margin while both teams struggled vs Fresno State from the Mountain West. Looking at the metrics, both teams run the ball very well at about 5 – 5.1 yards per rush but UCLA stops the run better allowing 3 yards per rush compared to Oregon’s 3.7. Advantage UCLA. Oregon throws the ball at a nice 8.5 yards per pass attempt while UCLA is at 7.8, however, Oregon’s Pass EPA is 71st while UCLA’s is 33rd. However, UCLA only allows 6.9 yards per passing attempt to Oregon’s 7.5. Oregon’s opponent EPA per pass is much lower being that their defense tightens up more on 3rd and 4th down than UCLA’s had in the past. This is close to a push here. The thing that gets me over the edge is the low spread of -1.5 and the fact that UCLA ranks 35th in explosive plays compared to Oregon ranking 94th. I also like the fact that Chip Kelly still has a chip on his shoulder wanting to beat his former team here. I think that the team rallies around him this game.
UCLA -1.5 – 3 stars
This game is really about metrics vs Perception. What is Clemson this year? Talentwise, they should be way better than they have been yet they look completely average on paper. We already know that Clemson has lost 2 games but after I saw them compete in the ACC, I am not even sure that the Market has caught up with them. Clemson ranks 2nd to last which is 129th in ATS Margin at -11.8 per game. That means the line has not been set and bet correctly on them all year long. In saying that, Pittsburgh is number 1 in ATS margin at +12.8 meaning the market has been way too low on this team. Metrically, Pittsburgh blows Clemson away in EPA margin ranking 10th to Clemson’s 87th. Both teams stop the run well allowing 3.1 yards per rush yet Clemson is a bit better against the pass. Too bad DJ Uiagalelei can’t really throw the ball. From a passing perspective it isn’t even close, Pittsburgh averages 9.6 yards per pass to Clemson’s 5.7. The Panthers also have a big 1.28 net yard per play advantage over the Tigers. The thing that gives me pause in this game is that we haven’t seen Clemson as a dog in the ACC in a very very log time. Since 2012, Clemson has only been a dog 12 times and they are 12-5 ATS in that position. What puts me over the edge is that this is the F-you game for Pittsburgh here. I can’t remember the last time Pittsburgh had the chance to win this game and this is the spot where they can get all that sweet sweet redemption against a very venerable offense. Brett Venables is also been Brett Venerable lately on defense. My power number is -3 but my metrics show Pittsburgh winning 24-17. I am taking Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh -3 – 2.5 stars
This is an interesting spot for Ohio State because they have been rolling since that debacle at home vs Oregon. Their defense has greatly improved and QB CJ Stroud is starting to put up Justin Fields type numbers. Metrically speaking, Ohio State has all the advantages in offensive rushing, passing and defensive rushing but a good margin except for the fact that Indiana shows a little better against the pass at least in yards per attempt. Now what I will say for the sake of Indiana here is that their schedule has been absolutely brutal facing Iowa, Penn State, Cincinnati and Michigan State. Don’t forget that Western Kentucky isn’t a bad team at all either. Ohio State, since the Oregon game, has faced absolute garbage and their stats have been padded because of it. Now we don’t know who is quarterbacking for Indiana here but it isn’t a big drop-off going from Michael Penix to Jack Tuttle and this Indiana team played very well with Ohio State last year. Ohio State could be a little flat in this spot if they get caught looking ahead to Penn State this but at the same time, my number on this game is Ohio State -18. I am going to be a player on Indiana when this number gets past 21 so wait it out if it isn’t.
Indiana +21.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
