Heading out to Vegas this weekend for the Eagles game. However, I will not be attending the game in the stadium. Will be watching via poolside from a cabana and couldn’t be anymore AMPED! Will not really have time to write anything while there, so here are my 3 FREE PICKS this weekend into MNF:
Current NFL Season Record: 61-30 (67%), +37 units
Nyj +7 (-118) 1 unit:
As we all know the Jets got absolutely ROLLED the first time they met the Pats this season 25-6. Zach Wilson’s second NFL start against the rookie Qb killer coach Bill Belichick. It did not go well for him, trying to do too much, forcing throws, and leading to 4 ints on the day. This gave the Pats short fields and Mac Jones only had to manage the game. Going 22/30 186 0 tds 0 ints, not exactly lighting it up.
Now let’s fast forward to this week 7 match up. Zach Wilson has started to settle in, got his first win under his belt, and played well traveling to London. Coming off a bye week and having film on how the Pats played them in week 2, we will not see the same type of performance from Wilson. He will be more polished and is smart enough to not make the same mistakes twice. Pats have been in so many close games playing very well against their competition; giving everything they can week in and week out. At some point this can deflate a team when they aren’t being rewarded on the back end for their efforts. Based on bet percentages ATS I am seeing 80% on the pats and getting that 7 points makes me want to fade the majority. I like the Jets +7.
Phi +3 (-119) 1 unit:
It’s Vegas baby! Flashing lights, cards are flying, chips are stacking, and the Birds are covering.
I am not sure if this is a trend or not, but for some reason I absolutely love the Eagles when they are getting +3 on the road. It has panned out well for them against the Falcons and the Panthers. It will continue this weekend, here is why:
The Eagles are absolutely due for these deep ball attempts to start connecting. They have the speed on the outside and have just been slightly off via penalties or under/overthrows by Hurts. This offense can move the ball under Hurts, it just seems they have been doing it more in the 4th qtr rather than the entire game. This is exactly what they will finally give us this week, 4 solid qtrs of offensive production.
The Raiders had a great emotional win last week against the Broncos. After watching the Broncos a little closer last night, I am not so sure that win was exactly that impressive. Granted it was a short week for the Broncos and a lot of injures, but still. Raiders have a solid defensive front that will get after the Qb. However, there will be opportunities where they may over pursue a little too much and Hurts will make them pay with his legs. Raiders are 5-12 ATS last 17 games played in October and 2-6 ATS last 8 games played on Sunday. FLY-EAGLES-FLY +3.
No -5 (-103) 1 unit:
From the looks of what I saw last week against the Steelers, Geno Smith simply can’t throw the ball down field. This is a passing league and going against a Qb in Jameis Winston who is not afraid to air it out does not favor Geno and the Seahawks on MNF. Coming off a win and a bye the Saints are rested and in a good spot to extend their record. Granted the game will be in an electric atmosphere of Seattle, it will quickly deflate by the play of the Saints offense and lack of play/production by Geno. I am looking for the Saints to jump out to a quick double digit lead, Geno throw some picks, and this thing will be over by the end of the 3rd qtr. Saints -5.
Thank you everyone for your support! Best of luck to you all this week!
