NHL Preview & Picks – October 26, 2021

What a terrible beat last night in the NYR/ CAL under 5.5. Heading into the third period we looked great with just two goals, then in the third they explode for four goals and hit the over with just 5 seconds remaining! That’s hockey for you though, we’re back with three picks for tonight’s slate. If you’re curious for a more in depth breakdown, head to my twitter for a Podcast I’ll be on tomorrow.

YOUTUBE LINK

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins 

What a start for the back to back Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning! They’re currently 2-3-1 and hold 5th place in Atlantic division… Not the start they we’re hoping for at all, but to be fair they have issues that across the board. To start, Andrei Vasilevskiy is not in Conn Smythe form, and has a -1.4 GSAx compared to his +26.6 GSAx last playoffs. Losing Nikita Kucherov who had four points in three games for them has limited them offensively, specifically their Power Play. Kucherov had 32 points in the playoffs last year for them. Captain Steven Stamkos currently leads the team in points with 9 points through their first five games. On top of their struggles in net and offensively, they are allowing an average of 4 goals per game which is 29th in the league. After losing 5-1 to the Sabres last night, I don’t see a return to their old form soon.

The Pittsburgh Penguins on the other hand, have rallied as a team behind the loss of their Captain, Sidney Crosby and hold a 3-0-2 record. Speaking of Crosby, he is skating with the team and looks to be returning to the lineup any day now. The big story for them has been the play of Tristan Jarry. To put it bluntly, Jarry was atrocious in last years playoffs with a -7.9 GSAx. However, this year he seems to have turned it around and has a +5.1 GSAx with a 3-0-1 record. Danton Heinen, Drew O’Conner, and Evan Rodrigues lead the team with 5 points a piece. The Penguins currently have the second highest goals per game in the NHL with 4.6 and the fifth lowest goals against per game with 2.2. They also have the best Penalty Kill with a 92.3 %.

PICK: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +120

While this may be a popular play given Tampa’s struggles, it’s hard to pass on Pittsburgh at + money here. The Penguins have seem to come together as team and are playing some great all around hockey right now.

Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche face off against the Vegas Golden Knights for the first time, since the Knights won four straight and knocked the Av’s out of the playoffs last year. These teams split the series 4-4 in the regular season last year.

Definitely not the start that the Golden Knights were hoping for at all with a 1-4 record. Vegas has been awful in every aspect, specifically goaltending. They lost Marc-Andre Fleury in the off season to Chicago, and Robin Lehner has not stepped up. He has a 1-4 record with a 3.27 GAA and +0.2 GSAx this season. However, he hasn’t had much help up front with the Golden Knights only averaging two goals per game. On top of that, they’re allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game. The loss of Max Pacioretty and Marc Stone have not helped, but even with playing only two games a piece they are still 2nd and 3rd in scoring for the team. If they want to get back in the win category, they’ll need William Karlsson and Johnathan Marchessault to step up.

The Avalanche haven’t exactly had a dream start to their season either with just a 2-3 record. In the off season they lost Phillip Grubauer to the Seattle Kraken, and replacement Darcey Kuemper has struggled. He has a 2-2 record with a .894 SV% and a -2.9 GSAx. In the first game of the season the Avalanche lost Gabriel Landeskog for two games with a suspension on a hit. Nathan Mackinnon has only played three games out of five after suffering COVID-19. Another major issues is the Power Play, last season they had one best and this year they have the third worst percentage on the man up. Their 2-3 record may be deceiving, out of those three losses two have come from undefeated teams (STL & FLA). They have also been struggling defensively allowing an average of 4 goals per game.

PICK: COLORADO AVALANCHE (-160)

The Avalanche have shown some signs of life this season, while Vegas has not. The return of Mackinnon and Landeskog have seemed to revitalize the team a bit. It’s also a revenge game for Colorado so I expect them to come out fired up.

Montreal Canadiens @ Seattle Kraken

The Stanley Cup finalists, head to Seattle for their second home game in team history. The Montreal Canadiens are awful, terrible, one of the worst teams in hockey currently? Probably all are true at this point, the loss of Carey Price has devastated this team who currently have a 1-5 record.  Price was the backbone of this squad and carried them to the finals last year with a +12.3 GSAx in the playoffs. The Habs are struggling offensively to put it bluntly with a 1.67 goals per game average. The young guns Cole Cauffield and Nick Suzuki only have 1 point a piece through the first six games. Last year they had the best Penalty Kill in the league with a 32 consecutive kills in the playoffs but this year they have the fourth worst PK%. Their captain Shea Weber is out for the season with a lower body injury which only hurts them more. Jake Allen will most likely be the starter in net with a 1-3-1 record, a .869 SV%, and a 3.79 GAA. The good news is that they face a team that is struggling as much as them in the Seattle Kraken.

The Seattle Kraken are off to a 1-4-1 start in their inaugural season in the NHL. In the off season they made a surprising signing of Phillip Grubauer. Grubauer was great for the Avalanche last season with a +5.2 GSAx but has a -4 GSAx this season. They also added Chris Dreidger from Florida in the expansion draft who is on IR. They hoped to model themselves after Vegas’ first season and build around solid goaltending but that has not been the case. However, goaltending is not their only issue, like the Habs, they are struggling offensively. They’re averaging 2.57 goals per game which is 25th in the league. Yanni Gourde has returned to the lineup after recovering from shoulder surgery this off season so they’re hoping he can provide a spark for them.

PICK: UNDER 5.5 (+100)

Given the struggles offensively both teams are having, I see this game being a low scoring affair. The Kraken are also 30th in the league in shots and are failing to create opportunities up front. Even with the goalies in net (Allen-Grubauer), I still don’t see them scoring more than 5.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.