Premium Record: 44-22-1, +34.47u
*MLB(1u): Braves F5 ML(+113) @ Astros–7:09 PM CT
Astros SP Framber Valdez through a gem against the Red Sox in his last start, but I’m not afraid to go against him tonight. The young lefty showed little consistency throughout the ‘21 season and has glaring struggles with command, especially at home(4.9 BB/9 at Minute Maid). Even with that great start against the Red Sox, Valdez has a 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this postseason. The Braves didn’t handle lefties all that well during the regular season, but they do mix-and-match some quality right-handed bats and improved against LPH throughout the season. The major advantage on the mound tonight goes to veteran righty and former Astro Charlie Morton. Even at 37 years old, Morton delivered a stellar season(3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and is a big reason why the Braves have made this run. Sure, it’s tough to bet against the Astros’ lineup, but Morton has shown consistency in limiting the long ball and knows this Houston lineup better than most. At +113, I believe the Braves are worth a play in the first 5 innings.
