This game to me is really a no brainer. I am not sure what Miami’s thoughts are after losing at home to Atlanta but they must not be real positive. Some might think that this is a revenge spot for Miami after getting blown out 35-0 but if you look at the history between these teams, the is game was only close 1 time in their last 6 matchups. Buffalo has won by double digits 5 out of the last 6 times. Looking at the metrics, it isn’t even close and the fact that Buffalo is coming off a loss and a bye week gives them more time to prep for their next victim. Buffalo is a team that beats up on the bad teams and the numbers show it being that they are 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. My number have Buffalo winning this game 35 to 17 and that’s being nice. I must say that I rarely lay over 7 points in the NFL but this situation calls for it.
Buffalo – 13.5 – 2 stars
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans +5.5 O/U 49
Now we all know what Tampa bay is and how they literally destroyed the Bears but this matchup to me is all about the defense. Tampa’s only weakness is really their defense against the pass ranking 10th in passing yards per attempt and 23rd in opponent total passing yards per game. The reason that I mention this is that New Orleans is a poor passing team with many injuries to their play makers and they will have to run the ball. The issue New Orleans run game is that Tampa ranks 3rd in opponent rushing EPA allowing only 3.3 yards per rush. The Saints themselves do not have a bad defense either ranking number 1 in defensive efficiency allowing a massive 19.7 yards per point while ranking 5th in drop-back EPA. Now I think that Tom Brady will have some success against this Saints defense but I also think that Sean Payton keeps a slow time of possession based game here so I think that Tampa wins but this total goes under.
Under 49 – 2.5 star premium
