Premium Plays: 51-26-1, +38.1u
2021 CFB: 65-50-1, +21.91u
*CFB(1.5u): Kansas State -24(-110) @ Kansas–Sat. 11 AM CT
It shouldn’t take too much to convince you why betting against Kansas is a smart play. The Jayhawks are losing by an average of 36 PPG in conference play this season, and I expect them to get steamrolled once again on Saturday. Kansas State doesn’t play an overly dominant style of offense, but they are incredibly efficient. QB Skylar Thompson is a 4th year starter and is completing 70% of his passes this season. The Jayhawks are almost certain to sell out to stop RB Deuce Vaughn, but even so I trust Thompson to hit his receivers in stride quite often. Kansas State has one of the best secondaries in the Big12 and is allowing just 23 PPG this season; Kansas is a total wreck offensively, and I doubt the Wildcat defense will be under much duress. Since arriving in Manhattan prior to the 2019 season, K-State HC Chris Kleiman is 2-0 against Kansas and has won those games by an average of 34.5. I’d expect for that trend to continue and for Kansas State to win this game by 30+.
*CFB(1.5u): Georgia Tech +10.5(-110) @ Miami–Sat. 11:30 AM CT
Miami is flying high off of two straight outright wins as underdogs. The Hurricanes took care of NC State at home 2 weeks ago before stunning a trending Pitt team on the road last week. While Manny Diaz and the ‘Canes deserve a ton of credit for bouncing back strong after a brutal start to the season, I’m not buying that this success is sustainable. Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke has played out of his mind these past 2 games, completing passes at over a 75% rate in each game and totalling 7 TD’s. Georgia Tech doesn’t have the most reliable defense, but they have proven to be strong against the run(like mostly everybody else against Miami) and are going to force Van Dyke to beat them. The kid is still a true freshman, and at some point or another, he’s going to fade off, especially considering he has a weak OL protecting him(sacked 7 times over past 2 games). The Yellow Jackets are wildly talented offensively; QB Jeff Sims can beat you with his arm or his legs, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for over 100 yards(and over 10 ypc) in each of his past 2 games. Even in a win last week, Miami still allowed 587 yards; this Hurricanes D is just not very good, and the narrative that Manny Diaz is some defensive savant has to stop. Georgia Tech HC Geoff Collins took his team into Coral Gables and stunned the Hurricanes 2 years ago(with a far less talented team), and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again. 10.5 is far too many points here; give me the Jackets!
*CFB(1.5u): Mississippi State +5(-115) @ Arkansas–Sat. 3 PM CT
Mike Leach teams are always known by most for their offense, but this Bulldogs team is playing exceptionally well on the defensive side of the ball. If you take away the Alabama game, Miss State is allowing just 18 PPG in conference play and have proven to be very strong in their front 7. The Razorbacks have a steady pair of RB’s, but neither present the home-run threat that would make me worry. However, QB KJ Jefferson does have some fantastic weapons to work with on the outside and a great play-caller in Kendal Briles; the Razorbacks should be able to hit on a few gadget plays. Even so, I expect Mississippi State’s defense to win this matchup for the majority of this game and put their red-hot offense in some great positions. Bulldogs QB Will Rogers went 36/39 for 344 yards last week against a respectable Kentucky defense; with a completion percentage at 75% on the season, Rogers seems to be settling in nicely to Leach’s Air Raid system. The Bulldogs don’t rely much on the run game, but that actually might play out in their favor on Saturday. The Razorbacks rely on blitzing from all 3 levels to get their defense on the field, so if Rogers is going to sit back and make high-percentage throws all game, I like Mississippi’s chances of moving the ball on Arkansas. As good as Arkansas’s defense looked earlier in the season, they’ve really faded off as of late. If this line was 2.5 or 3, maybe I wouldn’t be so bullish on the Bulldogs, but getting 5 points in this close of a matchup is a steal. I think there’s a real chance Mississippi State wins this game outright, so give me those 5 points every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
*CFB(1u): Auburn +5(-110) @ Texas A&M–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Texas A&M has obviously improved quite a bit throughout this season(Did you hear that they beat Bama?), but I think the markets have started to overvalue them. Since that Alabama upset win, the Aggies have played two SEC doormats in Missouri and South Carolina. The Texas A&M run game looks fantastic at the moment, but it’s starting to look like QB Zach Calzada had one of the more flukier, “one hit wonder” games in recent memory. Since completely torching Alabama, Calzada has completed just 51% of his passes over his past 2 games. As good as the Aggies run game has been, they can’t afford to be one-dimensional against an Auburn defense that is still slept on in my opinion. Auburn DC Derek Mason has his guys playing sharp football at all 3 levels; with Calzada’s inconsistencies paired with Jimbo Fisher’s methodical pace/play-calling, I’m not expecting the Aggies to light it up offensively. Auburn QB Bo Nix has made a complete “180” on his Auburn career after being benched against Georgia State; since that game, the Tigers are 3-1 with wins @ LSU, @ Arkansas, and at home vs Ole Miss last week. The Aggies defense, like Auburn’s, is very stout, but they haven’t faced a QB with quite the running ability that Nix possesses. When the Aggies faced Arkansas, KJ Jefferson’s ability to use his feet made a sizable impact on that game, and that factor could very well be the difference here. I believe this game will be decided by a field goal(or less) in either direction, so taking the 5 points with Auburn in a game they can most certainly win is a no brainer.
*CFB(1u): Oregon -7(-110) @ Washington–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
I had high expectations for this Washington team coming into the season, so to say I’ve been disappointed by their 4-4 campaign would be an understatement. The Huskies offense is totally stagnant with Dylan Morris at QB; Jimmy Lake’s refusal to turn to freshman phenom Sam Huard is going to come back to bite him. Oregon has one of the most talented defenses in the country, so if Washington can only muster together 20 points against a really bad Stanford team, I have little confidence in how they’ll fare in this matchup. I’ve been critical of Oregon QB Anthony Brown in the past, but he seems to have really turned a corner over the past few weeks. In his last 3 games, Brown has completed over 70% of his passes in each and has started to find a connection with his ultra-talented WR’s. While RB Travis Dye doesn’t provide quite the same amount of “umph” as CJ Verdell did, the Ducks running game is still plenty competent. Frankly, Verdell’s injury has led the Ducks to rely more on their passing game and start to open up the offense. Washington’s defense is still solid and well-coached, but if your offense can’t move the ball, how much does that really matter? These two teams really don’t like each other, so I’d expect the clearly superior Oregon team to rub it in a little bit at the end and get us this cover.
*CFB(1u): USC TT UNDER 25 @ Arizona State–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
Oh boy, where do we start with this USC offense. The 2 QB system didn’t seem to leave junior Kedon Slovis too happy about things after last week’s game, and while freshman Jaxson Dart has shown promise in his young career, Slovis gives the Trojans the much higher floor. There hasn’t been much clarity on which QB will take the majority of the snaps, but regardless of who it is, this Trojans offense is going to be playing an uphill battle. WR Drake London was virtually the entirety of the USC WR core(1,084 yards, 135 yards/game), so now that he’s out for the season, the Trojans should expect a major hit to their passing attack. RB Keontay Ingram has actually run wild this season(6 YPC on 124 rushes), but the Trojans have still struggled to finish drives even with everybody healthy. Arizona State unexplainably lost at home to Washington State last week, but I’m not changing my stance on the Sun Devils’ defense. Herm Edwards has accumulated a ton of talent during his time in Tempe, and DC Antonio Pierce has these guys playing well at all 3 levels. Arizona State uses up a lot of clock when they’re on offense, so possessions should be at a premium for USC. Combine that with USC’s offensive inadequacies, and I think we have an easy TT Under in this spot.
*CFB Same-Game Teaser(1u): Auburn +11 @ Texas A&M AND Auburn/Texas A&M UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
See my explanation for this game above. The one thing I’ll add is that Auburn is not very strong at the WR position, meaning explosive plays for the Tigers will be limited. I like Auburn +5 and in this teaser, but I also think we see a lower-scoring game given each team’s offensive style and defensive strengths.
