Very busy time of year for all, so much going on, it’s a very exciting time indeed. With all the data to review, I like to go heavier on sports that have the bigger sample size and tread lightly on the seasons that have just started. I’ll keep my Friday basketball handicaps as brief as possible…
NBA
POR at HOU
Tonight we have two teams that lean to the under as Portland is 5-7 O/U and HOU is 4-7 O/U yet we’re seeing a higher total of 222 for this one given all the unders in the NBA thus far. Tells me books and the market is expecting some regression to the mean on Portland’s poor shooting on the season. And thus, when we look at the 1Q total of 56.5 we see the books are expecting the regression or are tempting bettors to take the Under. With POR sitting at 1-10 O/U for 1Q totals and the Blazers not performing as well on the road, I’ll keep looking to the UN until proven otherwise. HOU does push the pace with a smaller lineup, but the shooting isn’t quite there yet, give me UN the higher total on the 1Q at the lesser juice…
POR/ HOU UN 56.5 (-107) 1.07u
CHI at GSW
“Superstar subtraction theory” (betting on teams the first game after they have a significant personnel loss) has been coming through across all sports it seems this year, so that will keep me off taking the Warriors full game. With the Warriors 9-2 O/U 1Q and the Bulls at 4-7 1Q O/U, we see teams that are starting out a little differently. With Vucevic out for the Bulls, I expect a period of adjustment while GSW is at full strength at home on a Friday. Give me the Warriors-2 1Q!
GSW 1Q -2 (-105) 1.05u
