NHL Preview & Picks – November 22, 2021

We have 6 games going tonight in the NHL with some interesting matchups. The Ottawa Senators return to the ice after having a Covid outbreak and face the Avalanche. We have a big matchup out west as the Golden Knights take on the Blues. However, the game I’m looking at tonight is the Penguins vs the Jets. Check out my preview and picks below:

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Winnipeg Jets

• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Pittsburgh Penguins: 7-6-4, 7th Metropolitan (3-2-2 Away)
• Winnipeg Jets: 9-4-4, 2nd Central (7-1-1 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg’s last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg’s last 5 games at home.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have been mediocre this year with just a 7-6-4 record. However, they have been bitten by the injury bug with Crosby missing several games and Malkin still on injured reserve. The Penguins enter tonight’s matchup on a two game win streak outscoring their opponents 8-0 during that stretch. The Winnipeg Jets have been much more consistent with a 9-4-4 record and can retake first place in the Central division with a win here. The Jets have struggled as of late losing their last two games but look to turn things around and stay hot at home.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins offensively have one of the best xGoals % in the League with a 54.07 %. This is pretty impressive given the lack of star power as several key players have missed a majority of their first few games. Sidney Crosby has returned to the lineup along with Bryan Rust but, Evgeni Malkin still remains sidelined. Malkin has begun to skate with the team as he looks to return from an offseason knee surgery. One area of concern for the Penguins has been their man advantage which ranks dead last with just a 11.5% conversion rate.

Defensively the Penguins have been good only allowing 2.3 goals against per 60 (GAA). They have also only allowed 28 high danger shots against which is tied for 15th best in the league. As previously mentioned they have shut out opponents in the last two games with solid performances from their netminder, Tristan Jarry. Those two shutouts were the only one’s he’s had all year and looks to be rounding into form. In his 14 starts on the year he has a +5.1 GSAx which is one of the best in the league.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are on a two game skid coming into tonight’s matchup after losing to the Oilers and Canucks. However, these losses don’t concern me that much as they defeated the Oilers in the game before and Vancouver was off no rest. They’ve had a few days off to recover and look to be in a better spot here but, do face a hot Pittsburgh team. Offensively they have been decent with a 51.71 xGoals % and 2.45 goals per 60 average. Kyle Connor leads the team with 22 points through the first 18 games. Paul Stastny is out for tonight’s game as he’s still recovering from a foot injury.

Winnipeg has been one of the best defensive teams all year with a 1.61 goals against per 60. They have a -11.81 goals against above expected which is second best in the league only behind Calgary. One area that they have struggled in has been on the Penalty Kill which ranks 31st (63.8%). However, Pittsburgh’s Power Play has been the worst in the league so it shouldn’t be a major concern tonight. Connor Hellebuyck is expected to start tonight and has been phenomenal early in the season. He has a +7.3 GSAx on the year with a .918 SV%.

PICK: WINNIPEG JETS (-120)

While the Penguins have looked good as of late and the Jets have struggled a bit, I still like Winnipeg at home here. They have been great at home all season with a 7-1-1 record and have had a few days off to recover. While Jarry has been solid this season, I think the Jets have a slight advantage in net with Hellebuyck staring. This should be a close game but I think the Jets pull this one out at home.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.