NHL Preview & Picks – November 23, 2021

The NHL has three games going tonight. It’s a light slate that’s highlighted by the Flyers taking on the Lightning. Check out my preview and picks below for that game and Dallas vs Edmonton.

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Philadelphia Flyers: 8-5-3, 4th Metropolitan (4-2-1 Away)
• Tampa Bay Lightning: 10-4-3, 3rd Atlantic (5-3-2 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games against Philadelphia.

The Philadelphia Flyers face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning for the second time in a week. They lost to Tampa Bay at home on Thursday 4-3 in a shootout. Claude Giroux scored a late goal to force over time but Philly failed to score on both attempts in the shootout. Tampa Bay has better as of late winning four of their last five games with the only loss coming to the Devils on Saturday.

Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia has been up and down as of late failing to rattle off back to back wins since October. They have struggled offensively as of late only scoring more than two goals twice in their last nine games. The Flyers have one of the worst xGoals % in the league with a 45.48% and only average 2.27 goals for per 60. Philadelphia also has a -2.57 goals for above expected meaning they’re failing to capitalize on their opportunities. Claude Giroux leads the team in scoring averaging a point per game. The Flyers also lost Kevin Hayes who’s out for tonight’s matchup with an abdominal injury.

The Flyers have been better defensively only allowing 2.11 goals against per 60. However, they have allowed 34 high danger shots against which ranks near the worst in the league. Philadelphia is one of the least disciplined teams in the league, ranking 25th in Penalty Minutes. This is an issue because they have the third worst Penalty Kill % (83.3%) which has caused issues for them. Losing Ryan Ellis on the back end is also a huge blow to their defensive core. Carter Hart is expected to get the start in net. He had a +0.62 GSAx in his start vs Tampa a few nights ago and has a +12.1 GSAx on the year.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Bolts are in the middle of a four game home stand where they’ve split the first two games, losing to the Devils and defeating the Wild. Tampa has a 52.44 xGoals % and 2.32 goals for per 60 average. One issue is their failure to convert on chances with a -3.02 goals for above expected. The Lightning Power Play has been an area for concern in the past and has gone 3-15 as of late which is slightly below their average on the year. Kucherov is still on injured reserve in addition to Brayden Point and Eric Cernak.

Tampa Bay’s defense has actually been pretty good this year with a -1.76 goals against above expected. They have a 2.17 goals against per 60 and are conceding the fourth fewest high danger shots against (23). Victor Hedman, a Norris trophy winner, continues to lead the charge on defense for them averaging a point per game. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the start tonight. He had a -0.63 GSAx in the win over the Flyers on Thursday. However, despite that performance he has a +5.1 GSAx on the year.

PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-110)

This is a tough game to pick a side, I do feel like the Flyers at +145 do have some value but am still hesitant to take them here. Both goalies have been playing well and with Tampa missing a few keys up front I like the under here.

Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars

• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Edmonton Oilers: 13-4-0, 2nd Pacific (5-3-0 Away)
• Dallas Stars: 7-7-2, 6th Central (4-2-1 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton’s last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas’ last 8 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers are 7-3 in November and come into this game on a two game win streak. Edmonton have one of the best goals for per 60 with 2.67 and a +1.6 goals for above expected. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to lead the league in points with 35 and 32 respectively. The Oilers Power Play also leads the league in conversion % (39.6%).

On defense, the Oilers have been sub par with a +1.66 goals against above expected, giving up an average of 2.82 goals against per 60. They’re currently giving up the most shots against per game with a 34.2 average. The Oilers are also missing a key piece of there defense with Darnell Nurse out indefinitely with a finger injury. Slater Koekkoek is also out for them which makes matters worse. Stuart Skinner is expected to get the start over Mikko Koskinen. Skinner has been good in his five starts this year with a +3.7 GSAx.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have been mediocre this year with a 7-7-2 record, sitting in 6th place in the Central division. Dallas comes into this game on a three game home winning streak defeating the Flyers, Red Wings, and Blues. The Stars have been an over machine lately going over the total in seven of their last eight games. Dallas has a 51.88 xGoals% with the leagues worst goals for per 60 (1.58). They also have of the leagues worst goals for above expected with a -8.5. The one bright spot for Dallas offensively has been their Power Play that ranks 5th in conversion %.

The Stars have been bitten by the injury bug in net with Ben Bishop on IR and Braden Holtby questionable for tonight’s game with a lower body injury. They haven’t been much defensively as the have one of the worst goals against above expected with a +2.64. However, they are only averaging 2.26 goals against per 60 which is middle of the pack. Unlike their Power Play, their Penalty Kill hasn’t been great ranking 21st in the league.

PICK: OVER 6.0 (-110)

PICK: EDMONTON OILERS (-105)

While the Stars offense has been inconsistent at some times, they have been better as of late. Edmonton continues to roll offensively and faces a struggling Dallas defense. Also with the Stars issue’s in net, I think Edmonton has a clear goalie advantage.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.