Been a good week so far. Sitting at 14-5 on the week up 14.6 units and now back on the good side of the ledger in College Basketball after a rough start.
Today I’m looking at the battle in Lincoln between 9-2 Iowa (-1) and 3-8 Nebraska (O/U 40)
Nebraska played a great game in Madison last week, but as they’ve done all season long they found a way to lose in the end. The Huskers are 0-6 in one score games this season. They’ve been also unable to get wins against key opponents in the Big ten. Wisconsin has beat them 8 straight times, Ohio State 7 straight times and this Iowa squad has won 6 straight vs the Huskers. Iowa still has a shot at capturing the Big Ten West title with a win here and a Wisconsin loss at Minnesota tomorrow.
Iowa has been led lately by Alex Padilla at QB to very pedestrian results throwing for only 83 Yards vs Illinois and 206 vs Minnesota. They did average 30 points in those last two games, but were at 10.33 the 3 games prior to that. Their strength has been in the rushing game with Tyler Goodson who is averaging 85.9 yards per game. Iowa has been held to fewer yards in their last 3 outings than their opponents, but have managed to win each game. Nebraska is at 57th nationally in both rushing and passing defense, but has done better in scoring defense thanks to solid red zone efficiency.
The lines on this game have moved drastically due to the news early in the week that Adrian Martinez will be unavailable. The Huskers were averaging the second most yards in the Big Ten, but we will have to see if Freshman Logan Smothers or possibly a QB rotation can step up and keep the offense churning. Iowa’s defense is solid at 314.8 YPG, and they continue to turnover opponents to help setup scoring chances. Their weakness has been against the pass, in the Purdue game they gave up 378 yards in the air, and 248 to a hapless Illinois offense last week.
This game opened with a total up around 45, and has fallen with the news of Adrian Martinez being out. I think Iowa should be up for this game and I think Scott Frost will want to end this awful season on a high note. Scott’s Frost offense for all the losses in Lincoln, is a solid system and has translated from his time at Oregon running Mark Helfrich’s Chip Kelly imitation into his own unique system. If something is going to translate to inexperienced QBs easily this is it. If Iowa gets up early I can see this one speeding up especially in the second half and I’ll take the discount with Martinez out. Also don’t be surprised if the Cornhuskers pull the upset here.
The Play: Over 40 2.5 Units
