A huge early season matchup goes down tonight at 10:00pm when the red-hot Golden State Warriors travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns, who have now won a staggering 16 games in a row! Here’s how I would bet this game. Good luck, people!
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NFL Circa Picks: 38-21-1
NBA: 74-57 (56%), +25.67 units
This is a marquee game between two titans in the Western Conference. These are also my two highest power rated teams in the NBA, with Golden State slightly ahead of Phoenix by 1.5 points. Because of that, this is an auto-bet for me on Golden State. The Warriors have done nothing but impress since the start of the season. Steph Curry has proven, night in and night out, that not only is he playing the best basketball of his career, but he’s clearly one of the best on-court leaders in the association. Because of Curry and Steve Kerr’s tutelage, Golden State’s young studs have developed fast this year, with contributions from Looney, Wiggins, Poole, Payton II and others standing out as the Warriors look like a very complete and very deep team. The most obvious way to bet this game is to take the Warriors at + money. This is a rare opportunity that you won’t get many times this year, especially not if Golden State continues to play this well on both sides of the hardwood. Golden State plays with a chemistry (cultivated by Curry) that’s hard to measure.
On the other side, the Suns are led by Chris Paul and after a slow start to their season, the Suns have picked up right where they left off last year. Phoenix has now won 16 straight games, catapulting themselves into 2nd place in the West, right under tonight’s opponent. Let’s compare some of the important stats between these two elite teams. In case you haven’t heard, the Suns are nothing to underestimate, either:
- No team has been more complete than Golden State. The Warriors are #2 in ppg and #1 in points allowed. Phoenix is #4 and #8 in those same categories.
- Both teams excel in the first QTR on offense. Golden State is ranked 1st, and Phoenix is ranked 5th overall in 1st QTR points. Consider a 1Q over 56.5 or a 1Q GS ML win.
- Phoenix leads the NBA in shooting percentage, sitting at 48.1% on the year. Guess who’s in 2nd? Yup, the Warriors at 47.9%.
- No team makes more 3s per game than Golden State (15.2). This could be the difference maker tonight; Phoenix sits at 24th with 11.4 made per game, and they’re not very good at defending the 3, either.
- Both teams have played strength of schedules in the bottom third of the NBA. But something to note: the Warriors are 4-0 against top 10 teams, winning each of those contests by 14+ points.
- Golden State is top 10 in 9 different shooting categories on offense and top 10 in 7 different shooting categories on defense. Phoenix is top 10 in 7 shooting categories on offense and 6 shooting categories on defense. Pretty damn good clubs!
A big point of emphasis will be who wins the battle down low. The Suns are one of the best front court teams in the NBA, ranking at 6th overall with 48.5 ppg in the paint. The Warriors are #1 in the NBA defending the paint, allowing only 39.6 ppg to their opponents. I’d look at props for Ayton under P/A/R or under P/R for this contest – points and opportunities won’t come easy against Draymond Green and that lock-down Warriors defense. I would also look at betting a live total (under) in the 2nd half. The Suns are 12th overall in 3rd quarter defense, and no team in the NBA is better in the 2nd half than the Warriors. Golden State ranks #1 in the 3rd and 4th quarters on defense, allowing only 22.8 and 23.4 points, respectively, in those final two 12 minute periods.
No matter how you bet this game, this should be a highly entertaining contest between two of the best players and on-court leaders, two of the sharpest coaches, and two of the most well-balanced teams. I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to just sit back and enjoy this without any bets. If you do want to bet it, consider the aforementioned plays. Enjoy the game and good luck, odds-breakers!
