CFB: 90-74-1, +25.7u
Premium Plays: 77-47-1, +42.8u
*CFB(1.5u): Oregon/Utah UNDER 58(-110)–Fri. 7 PM CT
These teams played just 2 weeks ago, and we were able to cash the Under in that one as well. In all honesty, it should’ve been even more low-scoring than the 38-7 final score indicates. Utah got off to a scorching hot start and also added a pair of somewhat fluky touchdowns right before the Half. Even with all of that madness, the game stayed well under. Tonight, I’m expecting a competitive and close game that goes down to the wire. Oregon responded last week with a convincing win over Oregon State(we cashed a 2u winner in that one) and has found themselves in this spot before having won the past 2 Pac 12 Championship games. Oregon QB Anthony Brown has played better than I expected him to down the stretch of the season and holds respectable numbers this season(64% completion, 7.8 Y/A, 15 TD: 4 INT). Even so, I don’t worry about Brown too much in the vertical passing game(given the 7.8 Y/A); Oregon’s path to success tonight is moving the chains and using Brown in the run game. Utah has a borderline elite LB unit that has stymied opposing RB’s all season; with Oregon starting RB CJ Verdell still out and backup Travis Dye showing mixed results, I trust the Utah defense to hold the Ducks run game largely at bay. Still, Brown has the physicality as a runner where I do think he’ll be able to move the chains on 3rd and short, which only helps our case for the Under. Utah’s offense has made the most of major matchup advantages throughout the course of the season(see the Stanford game), but when matching up with a physical and complete defense like Oregon, I’m not willing to trust them. QB Cameron Rising might be protected by an elite OL, but Oregon specializes in their pass rush led by future top-5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks are solid in the second and third levels as well, and while Utes RB Tavion Thomas emerged with a breakout campaign, the Ducks held him to a respectable 21 carries/94 yards in their first matchup. Much like Brown, Rising(7.7 Y/A) isn’t going to be chucking the ball too much vertically; even if he wanted to, the Ducks secondary matches up well with a somewhat weak Utah WR core. 58 points was far too many when these teams first met, and the same remains true here in a championship environment. I like the Under a lot.
*CFB(1.5u): Alabama/Georgia UNDER 49.5(-110)–Sat. 3 PM CT
Georgia is unequivocally the top team in the country after steamrolling through their SEC schedule this season; they won their SEC games by an average of 32 PPG. They are allowing just 7 PPG(far and away the best in the country) and have only allowed more than 13 points once this season. In most years, Alabama would be set up to challenge this Georgia defense for the full 60 minutes, but this is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams. The Tide have major issues at both OL and RB, as evidence in last week’s narrow win at Auburn. Bryce Young was sacked 7 times this week, but that’s not a new problem for the Tide; he was sacked 4 times against Arkansas, LSU, and Texas A&M this season as well. RB Brian Robinson Jr. is questionable for this game, but even so, he’s been less than impressive this season(4.9 YPC) and seen regression over the past 4 games. The Tide are very thin at that position, with Trey Sanders(4.4 YPC) being the only other valid option in this matchup. You have to account for WR Jameson Williams getting some production and Bryce Young managing the game well, but this version of Alabama does not match up well with an elite defense like Georgia. However, I do think the Tide are pretty strong defensively this season, particularly against the run. Because Georgia’s defense has been so dominant, the Bulldog offense has found themselves in some advantageous positions throughout the season. Even so, because Alabama should at least be able to get into Georgia territory some throughout this game, I think Georgia’s going to have to sustain some long drives in order to pull away in this game. QB Stetson Bennett is loaded with talent around him, but I haven’t forgotten how shellshocked he looked in last year’s game against Alabama. I think the Tide will force the ‘Dogs into some obvious passing situations, which is not an area where Georgia has found themselves at all this season. I expect Georgia to pull away in this one at some point, but this high of a total is silly given how good Georgia’s defense has been this season. I’ll call it a 27-13 Georgia win and a comfortable winner on the Under.
*CFB(1.5u): Pitt -3(-115) vs Wake Forest–Sat. 7 PM CT
Wake Forest started out the season 8-0 because they played an incredibly weak schedule, but after playing better competition in the month of November, the Demon Deacons revealed their true colors. While they went 2-2 down the stretch of the season, the defense allowed an average of 49 PPG against North Carolina, NC State, and Clemson. Last week, they absolutely drubbed Boston College by a score of 41-10. However, when you look deeper, BC QB Phil Jurkovec went 3/11 for 19 yards through the air because he was playing at less than 50%. When Wake Forest has played the better offenses in the ACC, they’ve been completely exposed. Pitt falls right in line as one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Kenny Pickett has had a Heisman-caliber season, throwing for 40 TD’s while completing 68% of his passes. With a Y/A at 8.8, Pickett has proven his ability to pick apart defenses. As Pickett has continued to torch defenses, the Panther running game has really opened up, improving drastically throughout the stretch of the season. Wake struggles most with the run, and I feel very confident that they won’t handle Pickett well either. Despite all of this, Wake Forest has put themselves in this position because they too have a prolific offense; like Pitt, they’re averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. However, much of QB Sam Hartman’s success came earlier in the season; in his last 4 games, he has yet to eclipse more than 8 Y/A in a game. Additionally, the senior QB is completing just 60% of his passes on the season and has also thrown 10 INT’s. With nothing special to add in the run game, Wake Forest’s destiny will fall squarely on Hartman’s shoulders. Pittsburgh has sputtered somewhat in these kind of matches this season, but this Panthers defense is very solid up front and has a knack for creating takeaways. Hartman would need to play his best game of the year for Wake to pull this off, and I just don’t see that happening. Give me Pitt -3 as a 1.5u play.
*CFB 3 Team, 10 pt Teaser(1u): Oregon +12.5 vs Utah, Cincinnati -0.5 vs Houston, Georgia +4 vs Alabama(-130)–Fri. 7 PM CT
Oregon and Georgia are explained in the write-ups above. As for Cincinnati, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game given how far they’ve come. If Houston had any semblance of a strong running game, I might be inclined to lay off here. However, without any ability to establish the run, I think UH QB Clayton Tune is going to have a hard time maneuvering around an elite Cincinnati defense. Desmond Ridder is playing his best football of the season over the past month, and he will do just enough to send Cincinnati to the CFP.
*CFB(1u): App State/Louisiana UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
These teams matched up earlier in the season with Louisiana pulling away with a 41-13 win. That score is not at all reflective of how these teams match up; for reference, App State is a 3-point road favorite in this game. Louisiana has been largely unimpressive this season and have found ways to squeak by inferior opponents week after week, but what allowed them to blow out App State was their ability to run the football. Since that loss, App State has made the proper adjustments defensively; in their past 4 games, the Mountaineers have allowed just 7.7 PPG with an emphasis on stopping the run. Louisiana QB Levi Lewis is throwing for just 7.4 Y/A this season and isn’t all that efficient, so if App State can continue to stop the run, they should be in good shape. With that said, there is no way I can trust App State QB Chase Brice in this crucial of a game. The former Clemson and Duke QB has a reputation for turning the football over at the least opportune times, and even against Sun Belt competition this season, he has thrown 10 INT’s. Going up against a Louisiana defense that is yielding just 18.5 PPG, I think the Mountaineers will be largely held at bay. Any total at 51 or up is worth a play on the Under for me.
