The NHL has 6 games going, with the only marquee matchup being the Washington Capitals vs the Anaheim Ducks. Besides that, it’s really not a great set of games on Monday night. There’s a lot of heavy favorites as well, which makes finding value a little tougher.
Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Arizona Coyotes: 5-17-2, 8th Central (3-10-1 Away)
- Dallas Stars: 12-7-2, 5th Central (8-2-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Arizona Coyotes | +248 | +240 | +1.5 (-105) | o5.5 (+110) |
| Dallas Stars | -280 | -310 | -1.5 (-115) | u5.5 (-130) |
Trends:
- Arizona are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona’s last 10 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
- Dallas are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
Preview:
The Dallas Stars on a six-game win streak and take on the struggling Arizona Coyotes. These teams faced off recently on November 27, where Dallas won 3-2 in Arizona. In that game Dallas went off at -200 on the moneyline but, is currently around -300 for tonight’s matchup.
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes we’re expected to have a down year this season and they have lived up to expectations. Arizona has the second worst Goal % in the NHL with a 38.20%. Despite their horrendous Goal %, they only have a -3.02 Goals For Above Expected (15th worst). They’re averaging 1.72 Goals For Per 60 which ranks (30th) and have the worst Power Play % in the League, converting at a rate of only 12.1%. Looking at all the stats, Arizona has been the worst offensive team by far. Since they start of November, they have only scored more than 3 goals in 3 of their last 15 games. If you’re looking at Arizona player props check out Phil Kessel, who has a point in four of his last five.
Arizona has a +7.27 Goals Against Above Expected ranking 28th and are allowing an average of 2.78 Goals Against Per 60. Although they are allowing a lot of shots against (33.7 per game), they average only 1.58 High Danger Shots Against per game. Scott Wedgewood, who was claimed by Arizona earlier this year off waivers, is expected to get the start. He has a +0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his 12 games played this season. In his last three games, he has allowed an average of 4 goals against. Wedgewood had a -0.42 GSAx when he started vs Dallas on November 27th.
Dallas Stars
While the Stars have been better as of late, they are still struggling offensively on the year with a -5.84 Goals For Above Expected. Dallas is averaging 1.95 Goals For Per 60 and 2.81 Goals Per Game. However, during their six game winning streak they’re averaging 3.5 Goals For Per Game. One strong point for Dallas has been their ability to convert on the Power Play which currently ranks 4th. They also have been great on the Faceoff’s which has led to an increase in puck possession. One mismatch may be Dallas’ Power Play that ranks 4th compared to Arizona’s Penalty Kill that ranks 29th. Joe Pavelski leads the team in points with 19 through 21. He has been great as of late, collecting 2 points or more in his last 4 games and should be someone you target for player props. Jason Robertson is also on a five game point streak so keep an eye out for him as well.
Defensively, Dallas has been slightly above average with a -1.77 Goals Against Above Expected. They’re allowing an average of 2.06 Goals Against Per 60 and 2.71 Goals Allowed Per Game. In their last 6 games, Dallas is averaging 1.6 Goals Against. The Stars have allowed the fewest High Danger Shots Against, 27. Braden Holtby, is expected to get the start in net tonight. He has a +2.4 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year which is the second best GSAx on the team. In his last game vs the Coyotes, he had a +0.09 GSAx.
Picks:
- DALLAS STARS 1ST PERIOD -0.5 (+105)
- When looking at this game, it’s hard to find value on the Dallas Stars but, at + money, this a great opportunity. Arizona is averaging 0.50 Goals For and 1.13 Goals Against in the 1st Period this year. Dallas on the other hand, is averaging 0.86 Goals For and 0.62 Goals Against in the 1st Period. The Stars have had a few days off so they should be ready to go for this matchup at home. The only downside is that this game is pointing to the under but, given the Coyotes rough starts to games, I think Dallas can grab one early. Also, in their last game which took place a little over a week ago, Dallas got out to a 2-1 lead in the 1st Period.
Other Plays for Tonight:
- ANA/ WSH OVER 5.5 (-120)
- Both teams have high powered offenses that should be on display tonight. They both have an xGoal % over 50% and average 3.1 (WSH) and 2.39 (ANA) Goals For Per 60 respectively. While the Caps do have a solid defense, Anaheim does not with a +4.05 Goals Against Above Expected. If Gibson does get the start for the Ducks, it would be an advantage for us as he has a -3.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Samsonov, does have a + GSAx, he’s been a bit iffy besides his last game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
