We’re on one hell of a run in NBA premium picks, going 14-4-1 the last 7 days. For my premium picks every day directly to your inbox, hit the link below. Below is a free play that I really like on the Monday slate. Enjoy!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 45-23-1 (65%)
NBA: 94-73 (56%), +25.34 units
Warriors -4 (-110), 2 units: This line is climbing but you can still get the Warriors at -4 at some books. Even at -4.5 or -5, I like Golden State. The Warriors are off a rare loss Saturday night at the Wells Fargo Center, only their 5th loss this season. Predictably, that was one of those odd shooting games for Golden State. The Sixers’ Joel Embiid took over the contest, scoring 26 points and snagging 9 rebounds, and Philly had an all-around solid game from its contributors. The Warriors couldn’t say the same. Steph Curry shot only 6-20 from the floor (that’s shocking for Steph) and Golden State shot only 25% from beyond the arc as a team. They were out-rebounded and out-played in the paint, too.
A loss to the Sixers at Philly’s home court is nothing to feel too bad about. Still, the Warriors have always answered the call following a loss this year. In their 4 previous losses, they crushed their next opponent by margin: they beat OKC by 21, Brooklyn by 18, the Suns by 22 and the Magic by 31. If this were the late 90s and you were a wrestling fan, the Warriors would only have 2 words for the Pacers tonight: You’re next! (IYKYK)
Indiana has played really well lately. Despite whispers of trade-talk and the team tanking to transform their roster, the Pacers have cruised to 3 straight wins against quality opponents. They out-lasted the Wizards and crushed the Knicks and Mavericks. Most of their success can be credited to a fluid, healthy offense. Domantas Sabonis is their most important offensive player, flanked by Myles Turner, Malcolm Brodgon, and a rejuvenated Caris LeVert, who’s fought through injuries the past year but seems to be in a flow-state these days– he’s averaging over 15 ppg and often carries the team when they need a clutch bucket. LeVert’s sustained health is a real positive for Indiana and the Pacers’ offense is gelling, averaging 111.8 ppg over their last 5 contests. Their defense has shown sides of improvement, too.
And that’s probably why this line isn’t very inflated. The Pacers have an extra day of rest, they’re at home, and they’ve been more in-sync than usual. Unfortunately for Pacer-fans, I don’t think any of those intangibles will matter tonight. I don’t have to tell you but I’ll write it here anyway- the Warriors have the best net rating in the NBA, the league’s #1 defense, a top 5 offense, they have the best assist/turnover ratio, and they’re my #1 power rated team. Ergo, the Warriors are really, really good. I have this game at -6.5 in Golden State’s favor. It’s almost inevitable at this point that Steph Curry will have a big game tonight. But don’t take it from me- look up his games after he has a poor shooting performance – he almost always explodes in the next contest. Given the spot coming off a loss when the Warriors had such a bad shooting night, the value is on the away team. Take Golden State, especially if you can grab them around -4.
