Dec. 20 – Myrtle Beach Bowl, Conway, S.C.: Old Dominion vs. Tulsa -9.5 O/U 52, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Motivation: Old Dominion – Medium – Old Dominion is happy to make a bowl game after not playing last year and they won 5 games in a row to do it. Probably more of a home game for the Monarchs. Tulsa – Medium Low – Tulsa also happy to make a bowl game but this will be treated like a vacation for these kids from the middle of farm country.
Injuries/Hold outs: Tulsa’s defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie leaving for the same position at TCU and offensive line coach Zach Hanson heading to USC. Gillespie will also take cornerbacks coach Carlton Buckels along with him to Fort Worth though some if not all might stay to coach this bowl.
SOS: Tulsa’s at 73rd and Old Dominions at 127th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Philip Montgomery, Tulsa, 1-2 and Ricky Rahne N/A for Old Dominion.
Metrics: Tulsa has a .6 net yard per play advantage over Old Dominion but the stats favor Tulsa some on offense and Old Dominion on defense. My power rating has Tulsa -10 points. Tulsa only ranks 91st in EPA margin while Old Dominion ranks 70th.
Decision: I really can’t see a ton of motivation here for Tulsa in a great location like Myrle Beach. Old Dominion started off the season terrible and finished amazingly beating teams like FAU and Middle Tennessee State. The only team that Tulsa has blown out this year is Temple and I think that the Monarch’s can keep this one close.
Old Dominion +9.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle the ML
Dec. 21 – Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise, Idaho: Kent State vs. Wyoming -3 O/U 59, ESPN, 3:30 p.m.
Motivation: Kent State – Medium – This team lost their title game but they also made it to a bowl game which is huge for the program. Wyoming – Medium Low – Not exactly what kids from Wyoming want in a bowl game and it’s still over 600 miles away.
Injuries/Hold outs: Not much
SOS: Wyoming is 91st and Kent State’s is 98th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Craig Bohl, Wyoming, 3-0 and Shawn Hamilton, Kent State, 1-0
Metrics: Wyoming has only a .1 net yard per play advantage over Kent State. The Golden Flashes are bad on defense and great on offense compared to Wyoming which is kinda medium at both. Kent State will run a fast tempo ranking 3rd in the nation and Wyoming will play it slow ranking 97th. My power ratings has Wyoming -3.25.
Decision: I can see a lot of variance in this bowl game when it comes to a side, but Kent State games have had some very high scoring and I could see it going over. Lean over 59
Dec. 21 – Frisco Bowl, Frisco, Tex.: San Diego State vs. Texas-San Antonio +3 O/U 49, ESPN, 7:30 p.m.
Motivation: San Diego State – Medium High – These kids lost their conference title game but will want to finish strong and treat this like a business trip. UTSA – Medium Low – They won their conference title and this bowl game won’t matter as much but at least it is more of a home game only 300 miles away. They have also played North Texas here almost every year but that didn’t go well from them a few weeks back. Some home field advantage for UTSA for sure here.
Injuries/Hold outs: UTSA star running back Sincere McCormick has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play in the Frisco Bowl. Roadrunners starting safety Rashad Wisdom will also miss the first half due to a targeting call in the second half of the Conference USA Championship game.
SOS: 61st for San Diego State and 57th for UTSA
Coach Bowl ATS: Brady Hoke, San Diego State, 1-3-1 and Jeff Traylor, UTSA, 1-0
Metrics: San Diego State played in the harder conference but UTSA has a .2 net yard per play advantage. The Aztecs have a horrible offense ranking 109th in success rate and a great defense ranking 6th in success rate. UTSA ranks in the 40s in both categories. My power rating has UTSA -7.25. UTSA ranks 30th in EPA margin to San Diego State ranking 56th.
Decision: This spread scares me some. The Story is that San Diego State was embarrassed by Utah State and they had covid issues going into that game. With the new info on McCormick sitting out, I do not want anything to do at this number.
Dec. 22 – Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Tex.: Army vs. Missouri +3.5 O/U 58, ESPN, 8 p.m.
Motivation: Army – High – Beat an SEC team? Why the hell not? Missouri – High – Happy to make a bowl.
Injuries/Hold outs: None but Missouri doesn’t know who they are starting at QB
SOS: Missouri 51st and Army at 87th
Coach Bowl ATS: Jeff Monken, Army, 3-1 and Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri, N/A
Metrics: Missouri can’t stop the run at all allowing 5.5 rushing yards per attempt while Army averages 4.9 on the ground. What I will say is that Missouri isn’t the worst passing team and could put up some passing yards vs Army who gives up 8.2 passing yards per attempt. I think that there are many ways that Army can cover this spread just due to their pure explosiveness running the ball. My power ratings have army winning -6.5 but I also lean to the over some. This is also a live betting scenario and you will see how the game will go on Army’s first drive.
Army -3.5 – 2.5 stars and over 58 – 1 star
