Dec. 23 – Frisco Football Classic,. Frisco, Tex.: Miami (Ohio) vs. North Texas+3 O/U 54.5, ESPN, 3:30 p.m. – I don’t know why Frisco gets to bowls?
Motivation: Miami (Ohio) – Medium – Lucky to even get a bowl game with only 5 division 1 wins but I am sure they are happy to be here. North Texas – Medium High – Won 5 games in a row to make a bowl game but stuck not traveling and playing this one at home. They probably assumed this might happen.
Injuries/Hold outs: None yet
SOS: Miami OH is 51st and North Texas is 87th
Coach Bowl ATS: Chuck Martin, Miami (OH), 2-0 and Seth Littrell, North Texas, 1-3
Metrics: North Texas is 90th in EPA margin while Miami is a nice 46th. Give N Texas 2 points for home field. Miami has about a 1 Net yard per play margin here.
Decision: Like Old Dominion, North Texas won their last 5 in a row to make a bowl game. Amazing. They also get to play it at home which isn’t great but not terrible for their motivation. This spread is trying to tell you that the MAC is better than Conference USA. Probably correct. My neutral numbers are Miami OH -3.5 but I actually like North Texas at home at the 3 or better.
North Texas +3 -120 – 2 stars
Dec. 23 – Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa FL: Central Florida vs. Florida -6.5 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Motivation: Central Florida – High – Gets to play an SEC team. Florida – Medium Low – Lost their coach and quite a few players. This bowl does nothing for them but it would be embarrassing to lose to a smaller Florida team.
Injuries/Hold outs: Were do we start? UCF QB Dillon Gabriel has been out a while but he is now transferring anyways. Florida’s Interim coach Greg Knox (running backs and special teams coach) on the sidelines as the Gators transition from the recently-fired Dan Mullen to the recently-hired Billy Napier. We could also see some Gators — like defensive lineman Zachary Carter — opt out. Another big NFL Draft prospect to watch is cornerback Kaiir Elam. In addition to potential opt-outs, Florida’s top wide receiver Jacob Copeland and top linebacker Mohamoud Diabate have entered the transfer portal. In Florida quarterback news, Emory Jones plans to enter the transfer portal but will play in the bowl game. Anthony Richardson will likely miss the game due to minor knee surgery.
SOS: Central Florida is 100th and Florida is 58th.
College Bowl ATS: Gus Malzahn, UCF, 3-4 and Florida N/A
Metrics: Florida has a .2 YPP advantage and in a much harder conference. My power ratings are Florida -6.25 but there is no way that I can play Florida with all of their opt out and coaching issues. If this gets to 7, it is a play on UCF.
UCF +7 – 2 stars
Dec. 24 – Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, Hawai‘i: Hawaii vs. Memphis -7.5 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 8 p.m.
Motivation: Hawaii – Medium Low – This team always plays in this bowl game. Memphis – Medium – Great destination but they will also get up for this game.
Injuries/Hold outs: Hawaii starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and starting running back Dae Dae Hunter both decided to leave the program and enter the transfer portal. Quarterback Brayden Schager, who really struggled in relief of an injured Cordeiro, will presumably get the start. On the Memphis side, wide receiver Calvin Austin III will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Hawaii is 86th and Memphis is 89th
College Bowl ATS: Ryan Silverfield, Memphis 1-1 and Todd Graham, Hawai’i, 6-4
Metrics: Memphis has a .5 net yard per play advantage but Hawaii is in QB turmoil and my power ratings are Memphis -6.5 even if Corderio was going to play. Lots of bad rumors for Todd Graham that he hasn’t been good to his players which means that he could be fired.
Decision: I think there is a good change that Memphis blows Hawaii out here at their house. I took this at 5 but would lay it up to -9.5
Memphis -7.5 – 2 stars
Dec. 25 – Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, Ala.: Ball State vs. Georgia State -5 O/U 50, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Motivation: Ball State – High – Ball State won the Mac last year and will be happy to try and win this bowl game. Georgia State – High – I think that Georgia State caught fire and will keep it rolling.
Injuries/Hold outs: Nothing
SOS: Ball State is 88th and Georgia State was 95th.
College Bowl ATS: Mike Neu, Ball State, 1-0 and Shawn Elliot, Georgia State 2-1.
Metrics: I only have this game close to Pickem looking at the power ratings. Both teams got better as the season progressed. Georgia State has a .6 net yard per play advantage. They should be able to run the ball averaging 5 yards per rush while Ball State gives up 4.2. Ball State ranks 92nd in EPA Margin while Georgia State ranks 62nd. Ball State ranks 92nd in offensive success rate and 120th on defense while Georgia State ranks 35th and 56th respectively.
Decision: The Power ratings say to play Ball State but the metrics like Georgia State. Passing at the 5.
