*CFB(1u): San Diego State/UTSA 1H UNDER 24.5(-115)–6:30 PM CT
Each of these teams enjoyed 11 win regular seasons and made their respective conference title games. UTSA beat a hot Western Kentucky team to win the C-USA, while San Diego State crumbled in a blowout loss to Utah State. Still, the Aztecs have an advantage entering this game in that they faced a tougher schedule than UTSA did. In addition to playing Fresno State, Boise State, and Nevada in conference play, SDSU also played(and beat) Rose Bowl-bound Utah early in the season. The Aztecs are completely led by their defense; they gave up less than 20 PPG in the regular season and were great at both stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. UTSA is a run heavy team, as RB Sincere McCormick toted the rock a whopping 299 times this season. McCormick declared for the NFL Draft and won’t play in this game; the 2 RB’s behind him combined for less than 100 carries and each averaged less than 5 YPC. UTSA QB Frank Harris has been very efficient this season, completing 66% of his passes and throwing just 5 INT’s vs 25 TD’s. However, much of his success has been in conjecture with an established running game; with this step up in competition and the absence of his RB1, I think Harris is going to be forced into some obvious passing situations early. While Harris was excellent as a runner this season, I see that part of his game flourishing more in the 2nd Half when the Roadrunners realize their usual game plan won’t work without McCormick. UTSA does play with a good amount of tempo, but San Diego State saw that sort of tempo plenty this season and still proved to be effective. As much as I just praised the SDSU defense, there ain’t much good to say about what they’re rolling with offensively. The Aztecs converted just 31% of the time on 3rd down and feature no real passing game. They played 2 QBs throughout the season, and neither was able to throw for more than 7 Y/A. Rather, SDSU chose a run heavy approach with RB Greg Bell; even with 221 carries under his belt, Bell averaged a pretty mediocre 4.5 YPC and shouldn’t be counted on as a huge threat to break off big runs. In addition to their inefficiencies, SDSU runs at a snail’s pace, ending the season with just 66.8 plays/game(106th in CFB). UTSA certainly doesn’t specialize defensively, but this Aztec offense isn’t too hard to stop. Given SDSU’s style of play, a 1H total at or above 24 presents us with a good opportunity to play this 1H UNDER.
*NBA(1u): Blazers +1.5(-110) @ Pelicans–7:10 PM CT
Don’t look now, but the Blazers might just be turning things around. After losing the first 7 games they played in December, Portland has picked up back-to-back impressive wins against Charlotte and Memphis. CJ McCollum is still out, and although Damian Lillard is “questionable” tonight, I would absolutely expect him to play. The Blazers have had to play with 8-9 man rotations here recently, but they should have more depth tonight after welcoming back multiple role players off the injury report. The Pelicans have technically won their last 2 games, but that came against Oklahoma City and a Bucks team without almost their entire starting lineup. In addition, the Pelicans haven’t played since last Friday. While there are certain teams who might benefit from breaks in their schedule, I don’t think this young, raw New Orleans team as one of them. I am lower on this New Orleans team than a lot of my confidants, and I can’t understand how they’re favored in this spot. I’ve got no problem grabbing the point-and-a-half and trusting a Blazers team that looks to be on the up-and-up.
*NBA(1u): Lakers +7.5(-110) vs Suns–9:05 PM CT
The Suns are as efficient of a team as you’ll find across the NBA, and I can see why it might be tempting to play against a Lakers team that’s roster is pretty depleted right now. Even so, this sets up to be a game that LeBron James goes “all out” in. Phoenix knocked LAL out of the playoffs last year and also beat them pretty handily earlier in the season. This is a nationally televised game, and as we know, LeBron James still has the ability to completely take over a game. I think that’s exactly what we will see happen tonight. 7.5 is too many points considering this spot.
