Cancelled – Dec. 29 – Fenway Bowl. Boston MA: SMU vs. Virginia -2.5 O/U 71.5, ESPN, 11 a.m. – First time bowl
Motivation: SMU – High – Will want to win first Fenway Bowl. Virginia – High – Will want to win as well. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s final game with the program after announcing he will resign at the end of the season.
Injuries/Hold outs: Virginia: offensive coordinator Robert Anae won’t coach in the bowl as he leaves the program. Virginia’s 3rd best WR Billy Kemp IV and offensive lineman Bobby Haskins will miss the Fenway Bowl after undergoing surgery. SMU: Will have a new head coach at the helm after the departure of Sonny Dykes, who also took offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and a few other assistants. New head coach Rhett Lashlee, who has plenty of familiarity with Virginia after serving as offensive coordinator for Miami, will not coach the Mustangs in the bowl game. Instead, Jim Leavitt will take over. Two of SMU’s top wide receivers Reggie Roberson and Danny Gray opted out of the bowl after declaring for the NFL draft. That pair combined for 100 catches for 1,428 yards and 15 touchdowns.
SOS: SMU is 89tha and Virginia’s is 37th.
Coach Bowl ATS: SMU N/A and Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia, 8-6
Metrics: Yards per play both of these teams are quite equal and looking at the defense, both teams are pretty bad with Virginia ranking 109th in success rate and SMU ranking 39th in an easier conference. SMU’s defense is 98th in opponent EPA per game. If there is an advantage, SMU does average 4.6 yards per rush and ranks 10th in rush EPA to Virginia giving up a massive 5.8 yards per rush and 124th in opponent rush EPA. Being that Brennen Armstrong is playing QB, Virginia should be able to pass at 8.5 yards per attempt while SMU gives up 8.2. If it wasn’t for SMU’s 2 best pass catchers being out, I would lean more towards them. This total is high but I have to still lean over. SMU ranks 16th in Tempo while Virginia ranks 30th.
Decision: No play but I think we have a close game.
Dec. 29 – Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY: Maryland vs. Virginia Tech +3.5 O/U 55, ESPN, 2:15 p.m.
Motivation: Maryland – Medium High – Not the best destination for a bowl game for an East Coast team but it’s nice for them to finally make one. Tauli Tagovailoa will be motivated to try and go pro. Virginia Tech – Medium High – I can see some motivation to play well for the new coach and positions for next year.
Injuries/Hold outs: Interim head coach J.C. Price will lead the Hokies against Maryland. The current staff will stay on board through the bowl game during the transition to new head coach Brent Pry. The Hokies will not have five starters who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, including: WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amare Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, G Lecitus Smith, QB Braxton Burmeister has also entered the transfer portal and will miss the Pinstripe Bowl, leaving junior Connor Blumrick as the starter.
SOS: Virginia Tech is 66th and Maryland’s is 17th
Coach Bowl ATS: Maryland N/A and Virginia Tech N/A
Metrics: Both teams are even in yards per play. Maryland has had the harder schedule and Virginia Tech is playing for next year. Maryland is 75th in EPA margin while Virginia Tech is 83rd.
Decision: Neither of these teams are that good but I see more motivation now with Maryland being that there are no holdouts and they get to play in New York. I made a mistake playing Virginia Tech early and now I want to wait for a 3 and play Maryland.
Maryland -3 – 2.5 stars
Dec. 29 – Cheez-It Bowl Orlando FL: Clemson vs. Iowa State +1.5 O/U 44, ESPN, 5:45 p.m.
Motivation: Clemson – Medium Low – Clemson had much higher hopes but at least the kids get to go to Orlando. Iowa State – High – This team was out of it for a while and will have an opportunity to play a great school.
Injuries/Hold outs: Iowa State running back Breece Hall will forgo his remaining eligibility and enter the NFL Draft. WRs Joe Scates and Tarique Milton, for the Cheez-It Bowl. That pair combined for 23 catches, 423 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Iowa State will be without 2020 co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, starting cornerback Kym-Mani King, and linebacker Aric Horne, as all three entered the transfer portal.
Meanwhile, the Tigers lost longtime defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who took the head coaching position at Oklahoma. Also, offensive coordinator Tony Elliott got the head coaching gig at Virginia. Clemson receiver Justyn Ross will not be back for the Cheez-It Bowl, but Joseph Ngata has a chance. EJ Williams will return.
SOS: Clemson 55th and Iowa State 23rd
Coach Bowl Ats: Dabo Swinney, Clemson, 11-6 and Matt Campbell, Iowa State, 3-4
Metrics: Iowa State has a .7 net yard per play advantage over Clemson. They also have the better quarterback. Clemson has the better talent but it took them a while to put it together. Iowa State is 27th in EPA margin while Clemson is 47th. My PRs have the game at Pickem.
Decision This is a real scary line here being that Iowa State is the much better team metrically, as well as SOS, yet Clemson is the favorite due to that defense and the strong finish winning 5 games in a row. I have a strong lean to Iowa State but I am not sure I will take it until the day of.
Dec. 29 – Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX: Oklahoma vs. Oregon +7 O/U 60, ESPN, 9:15 p.m. – They should rename this game to the sad-ass bowl.
Motivation: Oklahoma – Low – Lost their coach and hopes of making it to the championship and many players won’t care. Oregon – Low – Also lost their coach and hopes of making it to the championship and this team got embarrassed by Utah.
Injuries/Hold outs: Both teams have interim coaches, as Bob Stoops will lead the Sooners against Bryan McClendon and the Ducks. Both teams will also have to make do without star defensive players who declared for the NFL Draft. Oregon will be without defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, while Oklahoma will be missing defensive linemen Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey. Oregon’s Top WR Devon Williams and starting cornerback DJ James declared for the draft and won’t play in the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma’s second-leading receiver, Jadon Haselwood, also entered the transfer portal and committed to Arkansas. Former starting quarterback Spencer Rattler and tight end Austin Stogner (14 catches for 166 yards and 3 TD) also hit the portal. More to come.
SOS: Oklahoma’s 53rd and Oregon’s is 30th
Coach Bowl ATS Oregon N/A and Oklahoma N/A
Metrics: Oklahoma has a .2 net yard per play advantage over Oregon. Oregon ranks 21 in EPA margin while Oklahoma ranks 42. My power ratings have Oklahoma -1. Oregon ranks 81st in pace to Oklahoma’s 80th. Reports are now that Oregon was missing about 30 players from practice.
Decision: There are so many variables in this game that I don’t really love a side. Lean the dog but what I do know is that with new coaches, these teams will not be rushing to do a lot on offense and will be more methodical. These teams already rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. These teams could have very low motivation anyways. Take the under 60.
Under 60 – 9 stars
Dec. 30 – Duke’s Mayo Bowl Charlotte NC, : North Carolina vs. South Carolina +9 O/U 58, ESPN, 11:30 a.m.
Motivation: North Carolina – Medium – I can see this team finishing strong and I think that Sam Howell Plays. South Carolina – Medium High – I can also see this team showing up for Shane Beamer who made a bowl game his first year.
Injuries/Hold outs: South Carolina will be without leading rusher ZaQuandre White and star edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare, who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Lastly, SC quarterback Jason Brown has also entered the transfer portal, leaving Zeb Noland as the starter
SOS: South Carolina 33rd and North Carolina 52nd.
Coach Bowl ATS: Mack Brown, North Carolina 1-1 with the Tarheels and South Carolina N/A
Metrics: North Carolina has a 1.4 net yard per play advantage. South Carolina is 97th in EPA Margin while North Carolina is 58th. North Carolina averages 5.4 rushing yards per attempt while South Carolina gives up 4.7. My power ratings have UNC -16
Decision. North Carolina should be able to run all over this team and now that SC is without their best pass rushers, Sam Howell will eat. Bet UNC barring any massive news and hold outs.
UNC -9 – 3 stars
Dec. 30 – Music City Bowl, Nashville TN: Purdue vs. Tennessee -5 O/U 64.5, ESPN, 3 p.m.
Motivation: Purdue – High – Jeff Brohm will want to beat the SEC. Tennessee – High – Josh Hueple trying to build his program.
Injuries/Hold outs: For Purdue, defensive end George Karlaftis and wide receiver David Bell are holding out for the draft. The Vols will be without number 2 running back TiYon Evans, who entered the transfer portal and recently committed to Louisville.
SOS: Purdue 8th and Tennessee 48th
Coach Bowl ATS: Jeff Brohm, Purdue 2-2 and Josh Heupel, Tennessee 1-2
Metrics: Tennessee has a big 1 net yard per play advantage over Purdue but I will say that their strength of schedule was weaker. Purdue ranks 37th in EPA Margin and Tennessee ranks 52nd respectively. My power ratings have Purdue -1.
Decision: The Boilermakers do not run the ball well at all and will have to pass to beat Tennessee. The fact that David Bell is opting out of the bowl really hurts the Boilers here and I think that the line movement was warranted. I do not have a play or a lean at 5.
Dec. 30 – Peach Bowl, Atlanta GA: Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh +2.5 O/U 55, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Motivation: Michigan State – High – Sparty would love to beat the ACC Champ here. Pittsburgh – Low – They won the ACC and they are still partying.
Injuries/Hold outs: Pitt quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett will skip the Peach Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, leaving Nick Patti as the starter. Also gone for Pitt is offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, for the OC job at Nebraska. On the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Damarri Mathis has opted out for the NFL Draft. Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III opted out for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Michigan State 27th and Pittsburgh 65th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Michigan State N/A and Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh, 1-3
Metrics: My power ratings have Pittsburgh -1 but I also have Kenny Pickett worth 10 points to this team over their backup. EPA Margin has Pittsburgh at 8 and Michigan State at 43. Pitt has a .5 YPP margin on Michigan State but State has had the much harder schedule. Both defenses are pretty stout and Michigan State would have a weakness against the pass if Pickett was in.
Decision: There is a massive motivation advantage here for Michigan State. The Walker loss also doesn’t even compare to Pittsburgh losing picket. This should at least be a -6 point spread for Michigan State looking at Pitt without Pickett.
Michigan State -2.5 for 3 stars
Dec. 30 – Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Wisconsin -6 O/U 41.5, ESPN, 10:30 p.m.
Motivation: Arizona State – Medium – This team was strange this year and had bigger expectations. Wisconsin – Medium High – This team loves to win bowl games and their season was essentially over earlier this year. Not sure why Leonard hasn’t left yet for a real system.
Injuries/Hold outs: Arizona State will be without two of its top backs, Rachaad White (declared for NFL Draft) and Deamonte Trayanum (entered transfer portal). ASU cornerbacks Chase Lucas and Jack Jones have also opted out. On the Wisconsin side, safety Collin Wilder will miss the bowl due to injury.
SOS: Wisconsin is 6th and Arizona State is 67th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Paul Chryst, Wisconsin, 5-3 and Herm Edwards, Arizona State 1-1.
Metrics: My power ratings has Wisconsin -5.5. ASU is 11th in EPA Margin while Wisconsin is 26th. Wisconsin’s defense is number 1 in stuff rate and number 10 in sack rate.
Decision: The only thing that is keeping me off Wisconsin is that they haven’t faced many rushing quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and in the past, they haven’t fared well against them. In saying that, ASU is a bit decimated at cornerback and maybe Graham Mertz can get it together. Lean Wisconsin for now.
