*CFB Same-Game Teaser(1u): Iowa State +8 vs Clemson AND UNDER 50.5(-110)–4:45 PM CT
I don’t advocate playing teasers very often, but in a low variance game like this one, I think it’s a safe look. Clemson would not be favored in this game if you went strictly off of this season’s numbers; their run over the past 5 years has consistently left them overvalued in the marketplace. Clemson QB DJ Uiagalielei is absolutely atrocious; he completed less than 55% of his passes and threw for just 6 Y/A, one of the lowest marks from a player that started every game this season. DJ’s failures led to the TIgers converting just 35.7% of the time on third down. Clemson started to rely on their run game towards the end of the season, but they won’t have such an easy time against an experienced Iowa State squad. The Cyclones had a few disappointing performances defensively, yet, they still gave up less than 21 PPG this season. As bad as Clemson’s offense was this season, their defense was in peak form, allowing 15 PPG this season and completely dominating against the run. Iowa State star RB Breece Hall opted out of this one to declare for the NFL Draft. Given that backup RB Jirehl Brock gathered just 23 carries this season, the Cyclones will likely be forced to rely strictly on the pass today. Brock Purdy completed 73% of his passes and threw for a standard 8.1 Y/A, but even with Hall in there, ISU converted just 36% of the time on 3rd down this season. This game has “defense” written all over it, but I do think Purdy(4th year starter) will have just enough tricks up his sleeve to keep Iowa State in it to the end.
*NBA(1u): Pacers -3.5(-110) vs Hornets–6:10 PM CT
This is a double revenge spot for the Pacers as they lost to the Hornets twice this season by a combined 4 points. In addition to the added motivation, the Pacers should have the advantage in the paint tonight as the Hornets are without PJ Washington and Miles Bridges in this game; this should free up both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner to have good nights. The Hornets run at a manically fast pace, but in doing so, they expose themselves to some lopsided losses when they can’t match up on the defensive end of the floor. There’s a reason the 14-20 Pacers are favored over the 18-17 Hornets; this is a gift-wrapped spot for Indiana.
*NBA(1u): Hawks +8.5(-110) @ Bulls–7:10 PM CT
The Bulls took care of the Hawks just 2 nights ago, but now, they’ll have to lay 4.5 more points in the second game of this double-header. If you’ve been with me, you know I love playing on the team who lost the first game of a double header when they rematch for the second time. I know that the Hawks roster has been depleted by the health/safety protocols, but 4 of their 5 starters are good to go for tonight. Trae Young should look much sharper in his second game off the protocols, and Clint Capela(who had just 8 points in Game 1 and played only 26 minutes) should be poised for a big night facing off against Bulls C Nikola Vucevic. 8.5 is way too many points to be giving the Hawks in this spot, especially with Trae Young, Cam Reddish, and Clint Capela all good to go.
