*CFB(1.5u): Michigan/Georgia UNDER 45.5(-110)–6:30 PM CT
Georgia deploys a run heavy attack offensively and is in no hurry to push the pace(120th in plays/game). QB Stetson Bennett did average over 10 Y/A throwing the ball this season, but I doubt that will translate against this Michigan secondary. Georgia’s strong suit is not their WR unit(their leading WR is a true freshman TE). While Georgia is fantastic on their OL, Michigan has a pair on nasty edge rushers who caused havoc against big, physical Big10 OL’s all season long. Bennett can improvise with his feet, but he also hasn’t shown the ability to make plays down the stretch in these types of games. I envision Michigan having an even harder time offensively in this game. Much like Georgia, the Wolverines like to run the ball a lot. Hassan Haskins is their high usage back, but he did fail to eclipse that 5 YPC mark this season. Freshman Blake Corum is much more of a home run hitter at that position, but let’s not forget what level of defense they’re going up against. Georgia allowed less than 10 PPG this season and recorded 5 shutouts along the way. They are marvelous at all 3 levels. Alabama had one really good quarter against them, but if you think Michigan QB Cade McNamara is capable of replicating Bryce Young, you’re crazy. Michigan lost their best outside threat in Game 1 this season and are not great on the outside. Michigan doesn’t veer away from their run-heavy game plan very often, and I don’t think they want to trust McNamara(8 Y/A this season) to try to beat Georgia through the air. Jim Harbaugh understands that this is going to be a rock fight type of game, and I think he trusts his defense enough to enter that battle. I hope nothing fluky happens early because I truly think this play on the Under has a chance to be a no-sweat winner. This game should play out similarly to Georgia’s 10-3 victory earlier in the season against Clemson, where the only TD came on a pick 6. I’ll play the Under for 1.5u.
*CFB(1u): Cincinnati TT UNDER 21.5(-120) vs Alabama–2:30 PM CT
I want to isolate the area of this game that I have the best read on. For instance, I could see Cincinnati’s defense having success against Alabama or Bryce Young and that Bama passing attack running wild. It’s a true toss up for me. However, what I DO feel best about is how this Alabama defense is going to match up with Cincy. I’ve been higher than most on this Bama defensively all season, and the way they closed the season out with a punishing performance against Georgia was no real surprise to me. What makes me so confident in this Tide defense is their front 7. Will Anderson is an absolute animal off the edge, and I can assure you nobody on Cincinnati’s O-Line saw anybody near his talent level this season. The Bama LB’s are also sure-stoppers against a standard run game like the one Cincinnati deploys. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder is a 4th year starter with a ton of pedigree entering this matchup, but I don’t know if that’s going to translate into a great day for him. This Bearcat offense runs at one of the slowest paces in the country and converts just 41% of the time on 3rd down(not horrible, but not the level you’d like when stepping up in competition). RB Jaylan Ford’s numbers are inflated by a few big runs; for much of the season, he was held in check. He’s also a former member of this Alabama team and somebody Nick Saban certainly knows how to prepare for. Alabama’s one weakness defensively might be their secondary, but I wouldn’t call Ridder some vaunted passer. Averaging less than 250 yards/game through the air, Ridder has much of his success working off of an established running game, something I don’t think he’ll have the luxury working with in this game. Ridder is a threat with his legs, but Alabama did a great job of containing dual-threat QB’s in the run game this season. This defense played really well down the stretch of this season, and Nick Saban always seems to have this unit humming for the CFP Semifinals. Catching over 21 points, I’ll play the Cincinnati TT UNDER 21.5 for 1u.
*CFB Teaser(1u): Georgia -1.5 vs Michigan AND UNDER 51.5(-110)–6:30 PM CT
You catch my drift on the Under with the above explanation. As for the side, I think Georgia finds a way to win this game. This is a program that’s been on the brink of a championship for nearly 5 seasons; Michigan wasn’t really expected to be here. Georgia has had more consistent success in their ground game(main 2 RB’s over 5.3 YPC), and Michigan isn’t exactly great in that area. Remember, MSU’s Kenneth Walker III ran for 197 yards(8.6 YPC) and 5 TD’s against these Wolverines this season. UGA’s QB’s(whether it be Bennett or JT Daniels who finishes this game) have had more success in the vertical passing game than McNamara, and it’s really not even close. Georgia won by an average of 30 PPG this season and were historically good defensively; one bad quarter against a team like Alabama doesn’t erase that. I like Georgia to pull this one out and rematch with Alabama in the National title game.
