*CFB(1.5u): Baylor +1.5(-110) vs Ole Miss–7:45 PM CT
Baylor is the more physical team up front on both sides of the ball, plain and simple. There’s this idea that Ole Miss is some juggernaut offensively, but did you know that the Rebels haven’t scored more than 31 points in a game since October 9th? Matt Corral is a good QB, but he’s not the level of downfield passer that people think he is. Ole Miss developed into a run heavy team, with 3 RB’s amassing over 100 carries this season. However, that’s exactly where Baylor’s defense thrives the most. Baylor held Texas’ Bijan Robinson to 17 carries/43 yards, BYU’s Ty Allgeir to 15 carries/33 yards, and OU’s Kennedy Brooks to 13 carries/51 yards. Moreover, this Baylor defense also has a knack for forcing turnovers. While Lane Kiffin is sure to have a good game plan ready for tonight, I trust this Baylor defense over the course of the 60 minute game. However, where this game is really won for Baylor is on the other end of the field. Ole Miss had one of the worst defenses in CFB last season; while they improved this year, they can be very leaky in both the run and pass game. Baylor has a pair of very strong RB’s; Abram Smith ran for 1429 yards at 6.1 YPC, while Tristan Ebner added 765 yards at 5.3 YPC. Baylor also has some deep threats on the outside that could give the Ole Miss secondary fits. It’s not decided whether Gerry Bohanon or Blake Shapen will start at QB for the Bears, but I think those guys are somewhat interchangeable; each has played pretty well this season. Ole Miss is the sexy pick, but Baylor is the right side.
