527/ 528 Suns at Pelicans 1H total OV 108.5 (-108)*
The total in this one has been pushed up from 218.5 to 224.5. Phoenix coming off of two high scoring affairs with the worst defense in the NBA in the Hornets and a shorthanded Celtics team. In those games, the Suns held the high scoring Hornets to 99 points and the Celtics to 108. The Suns’ C Ayton and Crowder are game-time decisions, two of their better defenders, yet we’re seeing money come in on the over.
The Pelicans are likely getting Brandon Ingram and Valancunias back tonight. We know with Ingram comes a lot of scoring and less defense. I agree with the line move to the over here because we have 4 of L5 between these two going over the total. However, these teams both lean to the under in these situations PHX 6-10 O/U in away games and NOR 8-9 O/U in home games, that’s enough to keep me off of the whole game total.
Looking at the 1H total of 108.5, the books seem to have adjusted to both of these teams’ tendency towards the Under here at well under half of the whole game. I’ll bite on this one as we see the Pelicans playing winning teams at home on the season are 6-3 O/U full game with the average 1H total over 111 here, average game total at 215. With the market heavy on the over here and the books having adjusted for the whole game, I’ll take the over on the lower 1H total. There is a chance Ingram and the Suns’ Crowder/ Ayton could come out rusty after their long COVID layoffs, so it will be just a small play for me.
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