Georgia vs Alabama +2.5 O/U 52
Here we are and these are the top 2 teams on my power ratings. As it should be right? Well let’s dive into it then. Now the biggest data point that we have from this game is Alabama blowing out Georgia in the SEC Championship. What we saw that game was a very uncharacteristic Georgia defense that allowed 536 yards, 421 passing and 115 rushing when they have only allowed over 250 yards once or maybe twice at most this whole year due to garbage time. One thing that I will say is that Georgia hasn’t faced a defense as good as Alabama’s since game one vs Clemson and that is part of the reason that they got themselves into some trouble throwing interceptions and only being 3/12 on 3rd down. Basically, what happened is that Bryce young took this game over and beat them passing the ball. Getting away from that game, a key thing that Georgia did very well vs Michigan was to stop the big plays. Michigan was 0/3 on 4th down and that is where Alabama can also be dangerous. Now, Georgia by the numbers is really a 6-7 point spread because Georgia has done equally well on offensive efficiency at 11.8 yards per point to Alabama’s 12.2 but Georgia has the elite defense at a massive 27.4 opponent yards per point to Alabama’s 15.5. Both teams are top 4 in EPA margin with Georgia at number 1 and Alabama at 4. It is really the scheming, the planning, the quarterback, and most of all, the coaching that took the Crimson tide over the top in the SEC Championship. This is why the spread is very close to the 3. Now when Alabama played Cincinnati, they did not need much of a passing game being that they pretty much ran all over them with Brian Robinson himself over 200 yards, but that will not happen vs Georgia and will Alabama be able to throw all over them again without John Mechie? JaCorey Brooks and Slade Bolden were the ones to stand out vs Cincinnati but I have to think that Dan Lanning will understand that it’s next man up and will do everything in his power to slow down Bryce young. I think that I will make a very small play on Georgia here to finally get over the hump but the prop market is where I will feast in this game.
Georgia -2.5 – 2 stars
