Free Pick Friday! – All my plays are Free tonight.
College Basketball has been difficult to handicap the last few weeks. COVID layoffs, teams missing players and the usual holiday ups and downs have really made it hard. I am currently sitting at 65-68-3 on the year. 11 of those losses are ML sprinkles. We finally went positive however in dollars for the first time all year this week and are now 5.05 Units to the good.
Short and early slate tonight in CBB and the game I am focusing in on is Detroit vs UW-Milwaukee. It’s on ESPN2 so a prime game to watch as well.
UW-M started off the year 3-9, but has bounced back to win their last two Horizon league games. They were without their 5 star shooting guard recruit Patrick Baldwin Jr. who is playing for his father for parts or all of at least 5 games before he returned on Wednesday in a victory vs UW- Green Bay. He re-injured himself during that game and his status is still in doubt for tonight. They have been good in the books winning 6 of last 7 against the spread. That being said they have really struggled offensively sitting at 258 in AdjO and are turning the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions.
The Titans of Detroit have been on COVID pause since Dec 19th. They dropped their first 6 contests, but has since won 4 out of 5. They are also riding a 9 game home winning streak dating back to last season. Offense has been their strength as they are currently 123 in AdjO. They are stuggling defensively at #305 in AdjD. Antoine Davis has been a huge asset for them averaging 22.2 ppg.
Both teams play a slower tempo checking in at 258 and 265 in AdjT.
I look at this one as two teams heading in the right direction, but again living in a world of unknowns. I think Baldwin’s potential injury status is the key here, as even if he plays his effectiveness will be limited. Between missing Baldwin and Detroit coming off COVID I am liking the under here. In addition I think the other two main things in play are Detroit’s shooting ability and Milwaukee’s continued issues with turnovers, so I also grabbed Detroit and see this as a 68-58 type of contest. Also the worthless trend of the day has UW-M 0-7 in its last 7 contests on Friday nights!
DETROIT -4, 2 UNITS. Under 136.5 2 UNITS
Bonus Plays:
Boston University vs Loyola MD
Boston U is a senior laden team led by guards that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Loyola is also a guard driven team with a slightly faster pace. Loyola is near the bottom in AdjO checking in at 287th in the country. Both teams turn the ball over around the middle of the pack and both teams are averaging just under 70 ppg. Between the mix of pace and lack of offensive prowess I am going to go under on this game.
Under 135, 1.5 UNITS
I don’t usually have picks in NBA as I think this is my 4th of the year, but the Nets/Bucks game is screaming under to me. Both teams have been scoring in bunches. Nets will be missing Kyrie since its a home game and the Bucks will be without Holliday, Allen, and Connaughton. Maybe that opens up more scoring potential for Durant and Harden, but this is likely a playoff preview, and both teams should be geared up on both ends of the court. They combined for 231 earlier in the year, but the playoff series last year never went above 226 and that was an OT game. Line movement has gone up from 230 to 232.5 and 40% of bets are on the Under, but that’s where I want to be.
Under 232.5, 1.5 UNITS
