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Georgia vs Alabama
When: 8:00 PM ET, Monday, January 10, 2022
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
PICK: Alabama +3 1 unit
I think it is clear that this season was about Alabama, Georgia and then everyone else were on a level below those 2 teams. An uneventful CFB Playoff.
Bama has beaten Georgia 7 straight times including 41-24 in this year’s SEC Championship game.
Georgia was -2 in turnover margin for the game. I feel the only test Georgia really faced was against Bama. The SEC was fairly weak as far as who Georgia had to play this year.
Georgia has a slight edge in numbers that I like to look at such as YPC on offense and defense and opponent’s completion % but the best QB Georgia faced before playing Bama the first time was probably Hooker in Tennessee.
First Meeting
Georgia was 3 for 12 on 3rd in the first meeting with Bama
Bama went 7 for 14 on 3rd
Georgia went for less than 7 yards per pass
Bama threw for 9.6 yards per pass
Bama held Georgia to 3.6 ypc, the lowest ypc for Georgia all season.
Let’s go back to the turnover margin
I went back 12 seasons
Out of the last 12 CFB Champions, 11 of those championship teams finished the season with a turnover margin of +5 or better.
10 of those teams finished with a turnover margin of +7 or better.
In 2016, Clemson finished the season at -1 in turnovers, but entered the championship game at +1. Clemson trailed Alabama 24-6 in the 3rd quarter of that game before that great Clemson comeback.
A team as good as Georgia sits currently at EVEN in turnover margin for the season. Given the schedule they played, that really surprised me.
Alabama sits at +10
Bama has a Heisman QB, a championship winning coach. Bama already beat Georgia convincingly just over a month ago.
Georgia 0-4 ATS following an ATS win
Alabama 5-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog
I have to take Bama +3 here
