797 St. Mary’s at 798 BYU UN 132 (-105)*
Tonight BYU comes into their second home game ever in WCC action tonight against a tough St. Mary’s team who will be coming into what should be a hostile Saturday night in Utah. We’re seeing some money come in for the over with the total at 132.5 in some books. I still like the Under in this one for a one unit play.
Looking at the trends we have a BYU that leans to the over at 8-6 O/U (136th in pace) and a St. Mary’s team that is 5-9 O/U on the season (311th in pace). BYU has a surprisingly good rank of 22nd in defensive FG conv. % and St. Mary’s is 76th, meaning opponents aren’t converting shots. St. Mary’s (85th in steals) might score some off of turnovers, but BYU shouldn’t as they are #302 in that category. The Gaels don’t get to the foul line often as they are 294th in free throw rate, and BYU could as they are 30th. But St. Mary’s doesn’t foul a whole lot as they are 16th in defensive free throw rate.
We’ve seen BYU speed up some of their opponents but more often we see this team catering to the pace of their opponent. This Under could go the other way if BYU comes out hot from the 3, and they’re 66th in 3 pt%. However, St. Mary’s defense is aggressive enough I think they can slow them down. Additionally, BYU hasn’t been great at home thus far and St. Mary’s hasn’t looked that good on the road. Give me the under!
