San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams -4 O/U 45.5
This might be the most important game for seeing all weekend and both teams will be motivated. The 49ers are in a win and get in scenario and all signs point to Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. Jimmy has been great this year quietly ranking 4th in composite EPA + CPOE. He also finally has a pretty healthy team to play with. Even with all of the 49ers woes, they are still tied with the rams at .9 net yards perp play. Deebo Samuel has been massive for this team being both a rusher and a receiver. Now the Rams are certainly a top 5 team and I actually have them ranked 5th in my power ratings, but they are not that much higher than 49ers. The Rams rank number 8 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play this year. The 49ers rank 7th and 13th respectively. From a matchup perspective, the 49ers are a little weaker against the pass but that is where the QB comes in. Matt Stafford doesn’t seem to do great in big games and this is his biggest game of the season so far. Over the last 5 matchups, the 49ers won them all and covered 4 of them. These coaches know each other being that they worked together back in their old Redskin Days. As a matter of fact, Sean McVeigh was under Kyle Shanahan back then as a tight ends coach making Kyle the big brother here. The Rams are in the playoffs already while fighting to win the division. The 49ers need to win to get in assuming the Saints win and are fighting for their lives. Would you rather have a dog fighting for a bone or fighting to see tomorrow? I’ll take the 49ers here.
San Francisco +4 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Bonus Play: Houston +10.5 – 2 stars – The Texans haven’t quit all season and they believe that they can beat this team again. Playing spoiler is a very underrated motivational spot that is overlooked the last week of the NFL Season. My power ratings have this game Tenn -8.75.
Refuse to lose Teaser: Dallas to -1 with the Raiders to +8.5 – 3 stars (if you didn’t get Dallas from my podcast then put in the Patriots in down to Pickem)
