Wow! LFG! What an awesome way to end week 18 in the NFL last week. From our top 5 finish in Circa to 3-0 in our free picks! Let’s keep that momentum rolling as we continue this awesome journey. Super Wild Card weekend is now among us and I personally am surprised with some of the teams that snuck in. Now let’s see if they take advantage of their good fortune or” Wentz it up” this week.
Current NFL record: 148-103 (58%) Units: +44.14
Pit +12.5 (-107)
Common knowledge we always hear in this industry is to, “fade the noise”. That saying could not be anymore true this week. There has been a lot of talk and frankly disrespect that the Steelers have absolutely no chance in this game. Others have even said this game is a, “bye-like week” for the Chiefs and maybe they should consider resting players. I am not buying that for one second. Not only is this the volatile NFL where any team is capable of beating anyone at any given time. This is the NFL PLAYOFFS! If you think the same Steelers team is going to show up and get blown out in KC they way they did in week 16, you are mistaken.
First and foremost: Underdogs are 15-3 ATS in the Wild Card round the last 4 seasons and have been 10-8 Straight up. Those trends are for a good reason. Playoffs are essentially a new season…. A clean slate….. all or nothing and the Steelers are playing with house money. When a team is playing with nothing to lose and zero expectations they can be very dangerous. Big Ben himself sarcastically acknowledged that they are a “bad football team” and they are playing to “have fun”. Don’t think for a second Steeler football and that tough blue-collar culture will lay down for this game.
We know the talent that surrounds Patrick Mahomes and there is plenty of it. However, we have seen it time and time again this Kansas City team can be extremely shaky this season: offensively and defensively. From suspect Mahomes throws/decisions to blown defensive coverage’s. This KC team is human. Tyreek Hill’s heel has been an issue as of late but is not considered to be a “large issue” this week. News came out that running back CEH will be a no go in this game, this stacked with back up running back Darrel Williams having toe issues may mean KC running game may struggle. We know KC is a pass heavy team in general and Steelers have the defensive front to make Mahomes struggle and possibly disrupt this KC attack.
12.5 is too many points for me in this spot. We cannot expect to see the same Steeler team that got blown out. I think Big Ben and this team rallies to make this an exciting close game. This is a spot for a vintage Steeler like showing of playing up to their competition. Steelers Lean on Najee Harris….Big Ben controls the ball and makes veteran plays to keep this close. Pit +12.5
