Hi All! New week, new opportunities (right, Trae?)! Here’s a free pick to start your week!
Currently on a 41-21 NBA run the last month (66%), and we’re up to +56 units this season. Hit this link to get my premium plays every day in your inbox!
Pelicans -2.5 (-110), 2 units: The Pelicans are not a good basketball team, right? Right… I mean, I think that’s right. But sometimes they can be surprisingly good. Like their opponent tonight- the volatile Indiana Pacers- New Orleans can catch NBA teams by surprise, particularly on offense. Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas are two of the most underrated players in the association. Josh Hart is a very capable forward, and Devante Graham can be explosive from the point guard position. Even without Zion, the Pelicans’ starting 5 is nothing to underestimate. Where the Pels really lack in quality is their depth. New Orleans has plenty of young, developmental talent- they’re just not quite, there yet. The Pelicans rank in the bottom 7 teams in bench scoring from game to game, heavily reliant upon their starters to remain competitive. When they do get contributions from their bench, they’re a better basketball team than pundits think. They also lead the NBA in defensive rebounding rate and they’re 3rd overall in rebounding ratio, a less-celebrated stat that can result in dominant performances. They have a significant advantage at the rim tonight against a team that’s limping into this contest.
Insert the Indiana Pacers. If a team could be diagnosed with “split personality disorder,” I’m thinking the Pacers would earn that stigma. Indiana is as unpredictable as it gets, full of scoring talent and solid enough depth to go toe-to-toe with the best squads in the NBA. Yet, unsurprisingly at this point, they’re 17-30 on the season and solidly in 4th place in the East Central Division. Rumors of a complete overhaul have been circulating for weeks (never good for team chemistry or confidence), with many predicting that the Pacers will look very different after the trade deadline. And even if all of that wasn’t true heading into tonight’s matchup, the Pacers are very banged up right now. Their primary scorers: Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Malcom Brogdon, are all expected to be out tonight. Caris LaVert is also a game-time-decision. They’re also a horrid 5-18 on the road, YIKES!
Brandon Ingram is out tonight for the Pelicans, which isn’t ideal, but look for player props on Jonas Valanciunas- he’ll have an irregular load to carry in Ingram’s absence. Regardless, the spot is too good for the Pelicans to let down and in ideal situations, they usually don’t disappoint. The Pels have won their last 3 games at home and they’re 4-1 ATS as a home favorite- I’m on New Orleans to cover for 2 units.
