San Francisco vs LA Rams -3.5 O/U 45
This total really says it all to me. Lower scoring game with two coaches that know each other well. I have to give credit to Matt Stafford on that last drive to beat Tampa Bay. The momentum was really going the other way and Cam Akers and his fumbles really made it easier on the Buccaneers. In saying that, the 49ers have been the Rams crutch over the last 6 games by winning all of them. These two coaches know each other well and there shouldn’t be too many surprises. Being that the Rams had a mid-year slump, and San Francisco was quite injured the first half of the year, I think we have to look at some of the advanced stats the last 1/3rd of the year. Since week 12, the Niners rank 8th in offensive EPA per play to the Rams 12th. On defensive EPA per play, the 9ers rank 10th to the Rams 7th. The quarterbacks have both been good the whole year and actually quite equal with Jimmy G ranking 4th in EPA + CPOE and Matt Stafford ranking 6th in EPA + CPOE. On the defense, San Francisco has the slight edge ranking 2nd in adjusted line yards to the Rams 6th. The trenches is where the 49ers have excelled, and they know how to avoid the pass rush through schemes. Kyle Shanahan knows how to frustrate the Rams defense quite well with mixed looks on offense and using more pre-snap motion to remove defenders from their zones to clear out passing lanes. Let’s also not forget Deebo Samuel and how much he has meant to this offense. On defense, the 49ers play zone 72% of the time, and Matt Stafford doesn’t seem to do as well vs zone compared to man coverage. Looking at home field advantage for the Rams, there really isn’t none being that LA is littered with 49er fans as they will definitely be showing up at this game. The Rams have a larger collection of talent, but their second leading tackler in Safety Taylor Rapp is still very questionable to play this game. I like Sean McVeigh and his offense a lot, but he is going against someone that might even be better than him in his mentor Kyle Shanahan. There is no way that the 49ers should be a 3.5 dog in a venue where they might have more fans. Take the Points and I think this will be a 3 point game.
San Francisco +3.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Bonus Prop Play in Bengals vs Chiefs game – Joe Mixon under 57.5 rushing yards – 1.5 stars. If this game pans out like everyone is saying it will, then the Bengals will have to pass the ball most of this game. I think that neither team will be trying to establish any sort of run here, and they will be only be doing it just to keep the other team honest.
