*CBB(1.5u): Northwestern/Nebraska OVER 146(-110)–Noon PM CT
Nebraska runs at one of the fastest paces in the country and is fresh off of a 79 point performance at Michigan. Northwestern ranks just 92nd in defensive efficiency and is no stranger to playing higher-scoring games; their games earlier in the conference slate against Ohio State and Maryland both eclipsed 180. While I do expect the Cornhuskers to score some points, this Nebraska team is very bad on the defensive end of the floor(160th in def. efficiency). Northwestern is a reliable offense(57th in O.E) and should be more than willing to speed things up. For this not to be in the 150’s is insane to me; this is my best bet for today.
*CBB(1u): Dayton/Saint Louis UNDER 132.5(-110)–1 PM CT
This should be a great environment in a very important A10 game between 2 very solid teams. Dayton is led by a 34th ranked defense and prefers to play things very slow on the offensive end of the floor(330th in pace). St Louis runs at a pretty standard tempo, but this is their first game in awhile they’ve had to face a legitimately good defense. That said, I trust the Billikens to get stops at home against a Dayton offense that barely cracks out the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. In this high-stakes A10 matchup, I expect points to be scarce.
*CBB(1u): Michigan +9(-110) @ Purdue–1:30 PM CT
I would understand this line about a month ago, but this seems to be factoring in Michigan’s early season woes a bit too much. The Wolverines have won 4 of their last 5, including an 18 point outright win on the road at Indiana. Michigan has started to click on the offensive end of the floor and should be able to go step-for-step with Purdue. I feel even greater about that given that Purdue ranks just 87th in defensive efficiency. Laying the same number against a similar Ohio State team last weekend, Purdue needed a buzzer-beater 3 to escape with a 3 point win. This is simply too many points to be giving a Michigan team that has seemed to turn a corner.
*CBB(1u): LSU -2.5(-110) @ Vanderbilt–5 PM CT
This is the ultimate buy-low spot on an LSU team that has lost 5 of their last 6, but I do think they have some things working in their favor. Even with their recent struggles, LSU still ranks 1st in defensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is basically a 1-man show with Scottie Pippen Jr and holds some of the worst offensive metrics in the SEC. While the Commodores can defend a bit, they have virtually no home-court advantage playing in front of the weakest fan base in major college sports. In other words, this won’t have the feel of a typical conference road game. When looking from that perspective, I actually think this is a great spot for LSU to get back on track.
*CBB(1u): Kansas State/TCU UNDER 130(-110)–7 PM CT
Kansas State runs at just the 253rd fastest pace, while TCU runs at the 168th fastest pace. The Horned Frogs have a Top 20 defense, while the Wildcats round out the Top 40 in defensive efficiency. Both offenses rank outside of the Top 100 in offensive efficiency. To summarize, we’ll get a slow paced game featuring 2 really good defenses and some poor offense. Why is this not in the mid-120’s? Under is the play for me.
*CBB(0.5u): Mississippi State ML(+205) @ Arkansas–7:30 PM CT
Arkansas has won 7 straight games and certainly turned a corner after some brutal early-season struggles, but this perhaps could be a look-ahead spot as the Hogs will host Auburn on Tuesday. Mississippi State, however, is a team that deserves Arkansas’s full attention. The Bulldogs find themselves squarely on the bubble and would do anything to win this game. Led by one of the top offenses in the SEC, this Mississippi State team just recently took Kentucky to Overtime in Rupp Arena. Facing an Arkansas team that might be getting a little too much love at this point, I think the Bulldogs could very well walk out of Bud Walton Arena with a W tonight. They already beat Arkansas by 13 earlier this season, for what it’s worth. This is not worth a play on the spread for me, but I will absolutely sprinkle a little something on this MoneyLine.
