Here are a few props that are part of my portfolio for the big game. Please note that whenever possible, I will avoid listing props where lines have moved completely out of range. Some solid positions have been already secured, but fall into the territory that makes them unplayable at current lines.
As always, lines vary from one shop to the next. Always try to get the best line.
- LA Rams to have more rushing yards vs. Cincinnati Bengals (price ranges are from -110 to -150 at present)
Rationale: While RB’s Akers and Mixon are priced about evenly, my team projections show LA likely to commit more to the run game, taking pressure off QB Stafford. This was certainly the case vs. Arizona, when Stafford attempted just 17 passes. But what sways me the most with this play is how LA distributed carries vs. Tampa Bay, holders of a top two rush defense. Most teams realize they can’t run on Tampa without having a mobile QB, and pass attempts jump. Instead, LA ran Akers 24 times. He only ran for 48 yards, but the game plan never varied. KC ran well vs. Cincy, but changed their strategy when the game got close, putting the ball in the hands of QB Mahomes.
Here are three other reasons I like this play. 1st, while Burrow can run a bit on his own, back-up RB Perrine gets almost no carries. Conversely, RB Michel is projected to have 5-6 carries, and RB Henderson may be activated for this game. 2nd, LA’s run defense has shown to be better than Cincy’s not only over the course of the entire season, but also down the stretch, and certainly in the playoffs. Finally, just based on game odds, the Rams are projected to win the game by over a field goal (therefore implying an over 60% win shot straight-up). That could lead to Cincy needing to throw more as the game goes along, at least if one believes LA will win.
- Mixon under 65.5 rush yards and/or over 3.5 receptions
Mixon’s rush yards seem to be anywhere from 62.5 to 65.5. His receptions are interesting. One shop has 3.5, +120, a great deal. Other shops have 3.5 laying -130 or more, and at 4, around -105. Below are some reasons to place a wager on one or more of these offerings, depending on what lines you have access to.
Mixon is priced at between 15.5-16.5 carries. If he runs four yards per carry, this gets close. LA however, allows less than that. While Cincy will want to run to take pressure off LA’s huge line of scrimmage edge in pass situations, I don’t see them using the draw play, and do see LA wanting to force Cincinnati into obvious passing situations. In order to stop LA’s multi-talented pass rushers Cincy must commit additional resources to pass protection. I see their TE’s and Mixon needing to block more than usual. I have Mixon priced at 60.5, so this is only a recommendation at 64.5 or 65.5.
For receptions, obviously the goal is to find 3.5 at reasonable odds. Cincy has two choices. Throw shorter passes to Chase and Higgins, hoping their talent enables them to break tackles and turn short patterns into big plays, or have designed rollouts for Burrow in order to avoid the inside rush of Aaron Donald. In case #1, Mixon can flair out for screens. In case #2, he would also become less of a blocker. I’m banking on Burrow going 25-40 in this game, and not trying to stay in the pocket to allow patterns to develop down field. A wager over 3.5 receptions at -130 or less is fine.
- 2nd half to have more points than the 1st half (currently priced around -115, note that a tie means the play loses)
Is it safer to use a two-way line? The ROI says no. You have to lay -150 or more in that case, but if the 1st half and 2nd half point totals are the same, then you push the play. I did not do the research, but another source indicated that that has happened so rarely that it is not worth it. Expectations are that both teams will “feel each other out” at the start, avoiding being down early. In addition, neither team tends to play a fast pace of game, with Cincy ranked near the bottom in related categories. That often changes in the 2nd half, both due to score as well as rhythm of the game.
Other Propositions to Consider
- Perine over 1.5 receptions (currently priced about -105)
This is a bit of a risky prop, as Perine’s snap count is about 22-25% in the playoffs. He gets few carries, but has been targeted six times in the last two games, catching four passes. If you want extra action in this game, he can be a consideration, especially if you are of the mindset that Cincinnati will need to pass more to win this game. From all accounts, Perine’s blocking is strong enough to get him into the game on some 3rd downs.
- Over 2.5 players to throw a pass (average price between +120 and +140)
This might be another one for action junkies, but at +140, why not? I make this about a 45-55 proposition, so I see enough positive ROI to throw pizza money this way. We often look at RB’s and even a WR to be the 3rd guy, but don’t sleep on Johnny Hector, the LA punter.
A word about Cross-Sport Props and Head-to-Head Props
Cross sport props are popular and can expose inefficiencies in the market. Examples are numerous. A player’s 4th round golf score, or the number of birdies for a player vs. number of receptions can be exploited by those who study flag locations for Sunday and weather conditions. Soccer experts can spot low scoring or high scoring games and match them up with success. Experts in NCAA and NBA totals can find edges (example, Auburn total points vs. WR Beckham pass yards) based on expected game flow. Networking with others who are proficient in other sports is encouraged.
Head-to-Head props can also lead to advantage plays. One site may list who has more receptions, player A or player B. Another site has player A -.5 reception or even -1 reception against that same player B, often without much of a bump in the price. I encourage everyone to study and compare offerings from place to place.
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